U.S.-Israeli Military Strikes on Iran: Implications for Nuclear Proliferation

On February 28, 2026, the United States and Israel launched a series of military strikes against Iran, targeting its nuclear facilities and leadership, including the assassination of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. This operation, described by President Donald Trump as necessary to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, has reignited fears of nuclear proliferation and regional instability.

[US-Iran War] Why Did the US Attack Iran? "Preventing Nuclear Weapons, Eliminating Enemies, Regime Change"The Record (New Jersey)Hartford Courant

The conflict stems from a long-standing tension over Iran's nuclear program, which has been viewed with suspicion since undeclared enrichment sites were discovered in 2002. The 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) initially imposed limits on Iran's nuclear activities, but the U.S. withdrawal from the agreement in 2018 led to increased enrichment activities by Iran. By mid-2025, Iran had amassed over 440 kilograms of highly enriched uranium (HEU) at 60% purity, raising alarms about its potential to produce nuclear weapons.

Arms Control AssociationIran’s Nuclear Stockpile in Question After U.S.-Israeli AirstrikesThe Guardian

The recent strikes, part of Operation Midnight Hammer and Operation Epic Fury, aimed to dismantle Iran's nuclear capabilities. However, experts have warned that these actions may backfire, potentially driving Iran towards a more aggressive nuclear stance. Jeffrey Lewis, a scholar at the Middlebury Institute, noted that a surviving regime could feel compelled to pursue nuclear weapons as a deterrent against U.S. aggression.

The Record (New Jersey)

Critics of the military action, including nuclear nonproliferation experts, argue that the strikes are counterproductive and could exacerbate the situation. Daryl Kimball from the Arms Control Association stated that the military intervention undermines diplomatic efforts and complicates the monitoring of Iran's nuclear materials. Concerns have also been raised about the potential for nuclear terrorism if Iran's HEU stockpile falls into the wrong hands amid regime instability.

Arms Control Association

In the aftermath of the strikes, President Trump emphasized the need to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons, framing the military action as a protective measure for the U.S. and its allies. He called on the Iranian people to reclaim their government, suggesting that the strikes could lead to regime change. Meanwhile, Iranian officials have denied any intention to develop nuclear weapons, asserting their right to a civilian nuclear program.

[US-Iran War] Why Did the US Attack Iran? "Preventing Nuclear Weapons, Eliminating Enemies, Regime Change"The Record (New Jersey)Arms Control Association

There are discrepancies regarding the status of Iran's nuclear program post-strikes. While some reports indicate that no enrichment activities have occurred since June 2025, others suggest that Iran may still possess significant quantities of enriched uranium. The IAEA has been unable to verify the current status of Iran's nuclear stockpiles due to restricted access.

Iran’s Nuclear Stockpile in Question After U.S.-Israeli AirstrikesArms Control AssociationThe Sydney Morning Herald

The situation remains fluid, with ongoing military engagements and potential retaliatory actions from Iran. The U.S. and Israel are expected to continue their military operations, while diplomatic efforts to address Iran's nuclear ambitions may face significant challenges. The international community is closely monitoring developments, particularly regarding the fate of Iran's uranium stockpile and the implications for regional security.

[US-Iran War] Why Did the US Attack Iran? "Preventing Nuclear Weapons, Eliminating Enemies, Regime Change"Arms Control AssociationIran’s Nuclear Stockpile in Question After U.S.-Israeli Airstrikes

• “That is what makes this such a tremendous roll of the dice,” — Jeffrey Lewis, Scholar, Middlebury Institute of International Studies

The Guardian

• “Without effective monitoring, the whereabouts and security of Iran's nuclear material will now become even more uncertain,” — Daryl Kimball, Arms Control Association

Scientific American

• “we don’t see a structured programme to manufacture nuclear weapons” — Rafael Grossi, IAEA Director General

The Guardian

The ongoing conflict between the U.S., Israel, and Iran poses significant risks not only to regional stability but also to global nuclear nonproliferation efforts.

Scientific American