Story perspectives

UK Projects 235,000 Annual Migration Amid Policy Overhaul

3/5/2026

Summary

Story summary

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) projects net migration at 235,000 per year from 2026–2030, due to increased emigration by British citizens.
Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood's migration policy overhaul accompanies the forecast revision.
The forecast could hinder GDP growth and labor supply and reduce output.
Mahmood says the aim is to reduce incentives for dangerous migration while preserving sanctuary for genuine refugees, and that those with safe homes should return.

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Story summary

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) projects net migration at 235,000 per year from 2026–2030, due to increased emigration by British citizens.
Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood's migration policy overhaul accompanies the forecast revision.
The forecast could hinder GDP growth and labor supply and reduce output.
Mahmood says the aim is to reduce incentives for dangerous migration while preserving sanctuary for genuine refugees, and that those with safe homes should return.