London Faces Declining Child Population Amid Rising Costs

A recent report by the London Assembly highlights a significant decline in the child population of London, which has fallen faster than in any other part of Britain. Over the past decade, the number of residents under the age of 10 decreased by 99,100, even as the overall population of the capital grew by 506,000. This trend is attributed primarily to unaffordable housing and childcare costs, which have prompted many families to leave the city.

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The report indicates that birth rates in London peaked in 2012 but have since dropped by 20%, now standing 10% below the national average in inner London. The fertility rate has fallen to below 1.2 births per woman, significantly lower than the 2.1 births per woman needed for population maintenance without immigration. Dr. Bernice Kuang, a research fellow in demography at the University of Southampton, noted that many individuals are delaying parenthood due to the challenges of establishing careers and securing housing. The average age of new mothers in London is now 32.5, the highest in England and Wales.

The Straits Times

The decline in child population has led to a reduction in pupil numbers, resulting in the closure of 100 schools in London since 2018, primarily in inner London. The financial implications for schools are significant, as their funding is closely tied to student enrollment. The London Councils project a 2.5% decrease in places for four-year-olds from 2025 to 2030, with inner London boroughs facing a more severe drop of 6.2%. This decline poses challenges for secondary schools and may hinder teacher recruitment, ultimately affecting educational standards.

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Hina Bokhari, chair of the London Assembly’s Economy, Culture and Skills Committee, emphasized the urgency of addressing these issues: “With the highest housing and childcare costs in the country, raising a family in London is simply out of reach for many.” The report recommends that policymakers prepare for a fluctuating child population by repurposing empty school buildings rather than selling them, to ensure the school system remains adaptable.

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Critics argue that the current housing and childcare policies are insufficient to support families in London. The typical home in the city costs 11.1 times the average local salary, compared to 7.7 times across England. Additionally, nursery costs for children under two in inner London are 34% higher than the national average, further exacerbating the challenges faced by families.

The Straits Times

Population projections from the Greater London Authority suggest that the decline in child numbers may continue until 2034, at which point a rebound to 2024 levels is anticipated. However, the long-term implications of this demographic shift raise concerns about the sustainability of public services and the future of London as a family-friendly city.

The Straits Times

• “The number of children living in the capital has fallen faster than anywhere else in the UK since the early 2010s,” — Hina Bokhari, Chair, London Assembly’s Economy, Culture and Skills Committee

The Straits Times

• “With the highest housing and childcare costs in the country, raising a family in London is simply out of reach for many.” — Hina Bokhari, Chair, London Assembly’s Economy, Culture and Skills Committee

The Straits Times