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Fed Rate Hike Odds Rise Amid Job Losses and Oil Surge

3/6/2026

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Story summary
  • Bond options traders price a 25% chance the Federal Reserve will keep rates by December, due to higher oil prices from the Middle East conflict.
  • Traders increased the likelihood of rate hikes to 16%.
  • The United States 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.16% as West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude neared $88 per barrel.
  • The United States economy shed 92,000 jobs last month, raising unemployment to 4.4%.