Avalanche Forecasting in Scotland: A Winter of Change

Scotland has experienced a significant increase in avalanche incidents this winter, with over 200 recorded, compared to just 42 the previous year. This uptick comes after a historically low season, raising concerns among mountaineers and safety officials. Notably, the worst season for avalanche-related fatalities occurred in 2012-13, resulting in eight deaths. Fortunately, despite several incidents this season, including one person missing on Ben Nevis, there have been no confirmed avalanche deaths to date.

The Guardian

The Scottish Avalanche Information Service (SAIS), established in 1988, plays a crucial role in monitoring and forecasting avalanche risks across six mountain areas: Lochaber, Glen Coe, Creag Meagaidh, Torridon, and the northern and southern Cairngorms. The service employs 19 experienced forecasters who are not only skilled mountaineers but also trained in avalanche science. Each day, they venture into the mountains to gather data, assess snow conditions, and produce daily forecasts.

The Guardian

Forecasters utilize various techniques to assess avalanche risk, including digging snow pits and analyzing the snowpack's structure. They identify weak layers within the snow, which can lead to avalanches when disturbed. According to forecasters, approximately 90% of avalanche victims trigger their own avalanches, often due to human activity. Conditions such as cornices and wind slabs pose additional risks, as they can collapse unexpectedly, leading to potentially deadly situations.

The Guardian

Forecasters like Kathryn Grindrod and Graham Moss emphasize the importance of adapting to changing conditions. Moss notes that the SAIS has operated similarly for 40 years but recognizes the need for a more responsive approach to current skiing and climbing trends. The service plans to enhance its communication strategies, including updates to its mobile app and social media presence, to better inform the public about avalanche risks.

The Guardian

Some experts argue that the SAIS model, which relies on forecasters conducting field observations, sets it apart from practices in other countries like France and Switzerland, where forecasters often work from offices. This hands-on approach is seen as beneficial, yet there are calls for the service to evolve in response to the rapidly changing Scottish winter environment, characterized by unpredictable weather patterns.

The Guardian

Alan Dennis, a veteran forecaster with over 50 years of experience, has described Scotland as one of the most exciting places to work in avalanche forecasting due to its dynamic conditions. As the winter progresses, the SAIS continues to monitor and adapt to the challenges posed by avalanches, ensuring the safety of climbers and skiers in the Scottish mountains.

The Guardian