Full Breakdown
The Impact of El Mencho's Death on Claudia Sheinbaum's Approval Ratings and Security Concerns in Mexico
3/7/2026, 1:19:26 AM
Overview of the Core Event
On February 22, 2026, Mexican Army forces killed Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, known as "El Mencho," the leader of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG). This operation has significantly influenced public perception of President Claudia Sheinbaum, whose approval ratings have risen amidst ongoing concerns about insecurity and drug trafficking in Mexico.
Sheinbaum's Approval Ratings Surge
Following the military operation against El Mencho, Claudia Sheinbaum's approval rating increased to 75%, recovering from a decline attributed to a surge in violence and protests in late 2025. An Enkoll poll indicated that 70% of respondents felt positively about Sheinbaum's handling of the operation, with 81% considering it a "very good" action. Despite this boost, insecurity remains a pressing issue, with 48% of respondents identifying it as the country's primary problem.
Security Challenges Persist
While Sheinbaum's administration has seen improvements in public support, insecurity continues to be a significant concern for citizens. A survey revealed that 68% of Mexicans are very worried about the current security situation, and only half expressed optimism about future improvements. The perception of public safety has worsened for 48% of respondents, despite a reported decline in homicide rates and increased drug seizures under Sheinbaum's government.
Omar García Harfuch: A Key Figure in the Operation
Omar García Harfuch, the Secretary of Security and Citizen Protection, has emerged as a prominent figure following the operation against El Mencho. His background includes surviving a 2020 ambush ordered by the cartel leader, which has shaped his public persona as a symbol of resilience. García Harfuch's strategy combines intelligence-led operations with a focus on reducing impunity, although critics argue that reliance on military forces raises concerns about human rights and the accuracy of crime statistics.
Public Sentiment and Political Implications
The operation against El Mencho has not only bolstered Sheinbaum's approval ratings but also positioned García Harfuch as a potential successor in the 2030 presidential elections. His popularity stems from a perception that he is effectively confronting organized crime, with nearly half of those surveyed believing that the current administration is more effective than previous governments. However, the ongoing threat of cartel retaliation remains a critical challenge for both Sheinbaum and García Harfuch.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
Despite the positive public sentiment regarding the operation against El Mencho, there are conflicting views on the overall security situation in Mexico. While some reports indicate a decline in violent crime, others suggest that the statistics may not fully capture the extent of organized crime's impact, including disappearances and territorial truces among rival gangs.
Conclusion
The death of El Mencho has provided a temporary boost to Claudia Sheinbaum's approval ratings and has highlighted the ongoing struggle against organized crime in Mexico. However, the persistent concerns about insecurity and the potential for cartel retaliation underscore the complexities of governance in a country grappling with deep-rooted violence and historical legacies. As both Sheinbaum and García Harfuch navigate these challenges, the effectiveness of their strategies will ultimately be judged by the Mexican public.
