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Close Polling Ahead of Brazil's Presidential Runoff

3/7/2026

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Story summary
  • A Datafolha poll shows a close race for Brazil's presidential runoff between incumbent Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, with Lula at 46% and Bolsonaro at 43%.
  • In a potential matchup against Tarcisio de Freitas, Lula holds 45% compared to de Freitas's 42%.
  • Both candidates have high rejection rates, with 46% of voters unwilling to support Lula and 45% rejecting Bolsonaro.
  • The general election is scheduled for October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25 if no candidate achieves a majority.
  • The poll surveyed 2,004 voters from March 1-3, 2026, with a margin of error of two percentage points.