Tactical Voting Threatens Nigel Farage's Reform UK Party

Recent polling indicates a significant decline in support for Nigel Farage's Reform UK party, which now faces challenges from tactical voting among left-wing voters. A BMG Research survey revealed that Reform UK holds a narrow lead with 27% of voter intention, down 5 percentage points from earlier this year. Labour maintains a steady 20%, while the Conservatives have risen to 18%, the Greens have increased to 14%, and the Liberal Democrats sit at 12%. This marks the lowest polling for Reform UK since March 2025, raising concerns about the party's viability in the upcoming general election.

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The concept of tactical voting—where voters select a candidate not as their first choice but to prevent another party from winning—has gained traction among left-wing voters. The BMG poll found that 64% of Labour supporters, 61% of Green voters, and 57% of Liberal Democrats are willing to vote tactically. In contrast, only 38% of Reform supporters and 48% of Conservative voters expressed a willingness to do the same. This trend suggests that progressive voters may coordinate their efforts to block Reform UK in various constituencies, particularly in light of recent electoral outcomes, such as the Greens' victory in the Gorton and Denton by-election.

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A More in Common survey identified Reform UK as the most disliked party among British voters, with 38% indicating they would vote against it, a notable increase from previous months. Green voters are particularly inclined to oppose Reform, with 67% of Reform supporters prioritizing voting against Labour. This sentiment is echoed by Ed Hodgson from More in Common, who noted that the polarizing nature of Reform candidates has motivated higher turnout among those seeking to block the party.

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The shifting dynamics within the electorate could have significant implications for the upcoming general election. Jack Curry, a pollster at BMG, highlighted that the appetite for tactical voting varies across the political spectrum, with left-wing voters increasingly motivated to prevent Reform from gaining power. However, he cautioned that fragmentation among left-wing parties could complicate efforts to consolidate votes against Reform.

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Keir Starmer, the leader of the Labour Party, criticized Reform UK for promoting a "toxic division" in politics. Following the Gorton and Denton by-election, he acknowledged the challenges posed by both the extremes of the Right and the Left.

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While Reform UK continues to lead in some polls, discrepancies exist regarding its overall popularity and voter sentiment. For instance, YouGov polling indicates that the Greens have recently overtaken Labour in voter intention, suggesting a shifting landscape that could further complicate Reform's electoral prospects.

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• “the shine may be coming off” — BMG Research Source

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• “‘Appetite for tactical voting across political spectrum’ Jack Curry, a pollster at BMG, said: “One of the most striking patterns from this poll is how uneven the appetite for tactical voting appears across the political spectrum.” — Jack Curry, Pollster at BMG

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The evolving political landscape in the UK suggests that tactical voting could play a crucial role in shaping the future of Reform UK and its ambitions for government.

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