Full Breakdown
The Decline of Upsets in NCAA Men's Basketball Tournaments
3/9/2026, 10:23:04 PM
Overview of the Current Landscape
The NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament, known for its thrilling upsets and Cinderella stories, is experiencing a notable decline in unexpected outcomes. Recent seasons have shown a significant decrease in the number of double-digit seeds advancing, with the 2023 tournament marking the first time in modern history that three consecutive tournaments featured no multiple double-digit seeds reaching the Sweet 16. This trend is attributed to various factors, including the impact of Name, Image, and Likeness (NIL) deals, the transfer portal, and changes in scheduling strategies.
Key Factors Influencing the Decline of Upsets
The current season began with a historic streak where ranked teams won their first 96 games against unranked opponents, reflecting a growing disparity between power-conference teams and their mid-major counterparts. According to ESPN Research, only 29 small-conference teams defeated power-conference teams this season, a 58.9% decrease from the 2021-22 season when NIL compensation began. This financial gap has allowed power-conference programs to consolidate talent, making it increasingly difficult for mid-major teams to compete.
Kevin Pauga, Michigan State's associate athletic director, noted that roster management and player movement have contributed to this trend. The NCAA's settlement of an antitrust lawsuit last June, which allowed schools to pay athletes directly, has further widened the financial divide, enabling power-conference teams to attract top talent from smaller programs.
Changes in Scheduling Strategies
Scheduling has also evolved, with power-conference teams opting for fewer games against non-power opponents. The number of such matchups dropped from 666 in the 2023-24 season to 616 this season. Coaches from mid-major programs, like Miami (Ohio) head coach Travis Steele, have reported difficulties in scheduling games against power-conference teams, stating that their calls often go unanswered after successful seasons.
Pauga acknowledged that while some programs may avoid mid-major teams, the system still rewards quality opponents. However, the trend of higher pregame win probabilities and larger point spreads indicates a growing expectation of dominance by power-conference teams. This season, non-power conference teams were 22.9-point underdogs on average against power-conference opponents, a significant increase from previous seasons.
Implications for the Future of March Madness
Data analyst Ken Pomeroy predicts that the trend of fewer upsets will continue, although he believes the tournament will retain its excitement. "The basketball at the top is better than it's ever been," Pomeroy stated, suggesting that while Cinderella runs may become less frequent, the single-elimination format will continue to provide thrilling moments.
Criticism & Opposition
Critics argue that the increasing financial disparities and scheduling changes undermine the spirit of the tournament. A head coach from a mid-major program expressed concern that the lack of competitive balance diminishes the chances for upsets, stating, "The tournament upsets aren't happening anymore because there's just such a big gap in money."
Conclusion
As the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament evolves, the combination of NIL deals, the transfer portal, and strategic scheduling has led to a decline in upsets, reshaping the landscape of college basketball. While the magic of March Madness may be changing, the potential for thrilling moments remains, albeit in a different form.
