Vermont Faces Population Decline Post-COVID-19 Boom

Vermont is experiencing a notable reversal in its population trends, with more residents leaving the state than arriving. According to recent U.S. Census Bureau data, 726 more people departed Vermont than moved there between 2024 and 2025, marking the lowest domestic migration rate the state has seen in years. This decline follows a brief period during the COVID-19 pandemic when Vermont attracted many new residents seeking a connection to nature and the flexibility of remote work. However, the post-pandemic reality has revealed significant challenges, particularly in healthcare access.

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Jenny Hopkins, who relocated from Austin, Texas, to Hinesburg, Vermont, just before the pandemic, faced severe delays in obtaining necessary medical care. After experiencing a postpartum mental health crisis, she struggled for nine months to secure a psychiatric evaluation. This prolonged wait for care led her to conclude that Vermont was not the right place for her family. She moved to southern Maine, where she reported immediate improvements in healthcare access, stating, “I’ve gotten mammograms as soon as I needed them. We all have primary care. We all have dentists that accept our insurance. It’s just been night and day on that side.”

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The demographic shifts in Vermont are compounded by an aging population, characterized by a low birth rate and a high death rate. Ken Johnson, a senior demographer at the University of New Hampshire, noted that Vermont, along with New Hampshire and Maine, faces similar demographic challenges, including more deaths than births. Johnson emphasized that for these states to grow, they must rely on migration. However, Vermont lacks the geographical advantage that New Hampshire has, being close enough to Boston to attract commuters.

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International migration to Vermont has also slowed, with the state gaining just over 600 new residents from this source between 2024 and 2025, a significant drop from the more than 1,000 per year recorded in the previous three years. Experts suggest that federal immigration policies may further reduce net international migration to zero in the coming year.

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The combination of these factors positions Vermont as the state with the lowest population growth in the nation. While it did gain approximately 1,700 residents from 2020 to 2025, the overall trend indicates a slow and potentially troubling demographic future. The state’s reliance on migration for growth underscores the urgency for addressing healthcare access and other quality-of-life issues to retain current residents and attract newcomers.

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Demographers and local officials have expressed concern over the implications of these trends. Johnson remarked, “If Vermont or New Hampshire or Maine are going to grow, they’re going to grow through migration,” highlighting the critical need for policy adjustments to foster a more favorable environment for both current and prospective residents.

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• “I needed help more at that point than I probably ever had in my life,” — Jenny Hopkins, Resident

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• “I’ve gotten mammograms as soon as I needed them. We all have primary care. We all have dentists that accept our insurance. It’s just been night and day on that side.” — Jenny Hopkins, Resident

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• “They all have more people dying in them than being born.” — Ken Johnson, Senior Demographer

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This demographic shift in Vermont reflects broader challenges faced by rural states in retaining and attracting residents, necessitating a reevaluation of policies to enhance living conditions and healthcare access.

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