Full Breakdown
California Democrats Launch Polling Effort Amid Gubernatorial Race Concerns
3/11/2026, 2:20:12 PM
Overview of the Gubernatorial Race
The California Democratic Party is initiating a significant polling effort, investing hundreds of thousands of dollars to evaluate the viability of candidates in the race to succeed termed-out Governor Gavin Newsom. This decision arises from growing anxiety among party leaders about the potential for a Republican candidate to win the governorship, a scenario that has not occurred in two decades. The party's move follows a lack of compliance from nearly all Democratic candidates with a request to withdraw from the race to prevent vote-splitting ahead of the June primary.
Candidate Landscape and Party Concerns
Despite warnings from Rusty Hicks, the chair of the California Democratic Party, about the risks of a crowded field, eight out of nine major Democratic candidates have filed to run. Only former state Assembly Majority Leader Ian Calderon responded to Hicks' call to withdraw. The candidates include prominent figures such as former U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra and state Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond. The primary election, set for June 2, will utilize California's top-two primary system, allowing the two candidates with the most votes to advance to the general election, regardless of party affiliation.
Polling Strategy and Objectives
The polling initiative will consist of six surveys conducted by Evitarus, a polling firm led by Black and Latino leaders, which aims to oversample historically underrepresented communities, including Latino, Black, and Asian American voters. Hicks emphasized that the goal of the polling is to provide all stakeholders—candidates, supporters, and voters—with a clear understanding of the race's dynamics. The first poll is scheduled for release on March 24, with subsequent polls every seven to ten days until mail ballots are distributed in early May.
Criticism and Opposition
Hicks' call for candidates to consider withdrawing has sparked concerns among candidates of color, who fear that the effort may disproportionately target nonwhite candidates. Hicks has denied these allegations, asserting that his letter was not aimed at any specific individual. He stated, “It’s not something I lose sleep over,” while reiterating the importance of the polling to inform voters about the race.
Implications for the Democratic Party
Despite a Democratic voter base that outnumbers Republicans nearly two to one, there is a mathematical possibility that the vote could splinter, allowing Republican candidates Steve Hilton and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco to advance. Such an outcome could not only result in Republican leadership in California but also potentially depress Democratic voter turnout in the general election, impacting down-ballot races critical for congressional control.
What's Next
As the polling initiative unfolds, the California Democratic Party aims to equip voters with essential information regarding the gubernatorial race. The results of the upcoming polls will play a crucial role in shaping the candidates' strategies and the overall dynamics of the election leading up to the June primary.
