Trump’s SAVE Act and Its Implications for Senate Republicans

President Donald Trump has announced his intention to veto all legislation until Congress passes his proposed voter-requirements bill, known as the SAVE Act. This act mandates that all Americans provide proof of citizenship to register to vote, a measure critics label as a form of voter suppression. Congressional scholar Norm Ornstein warns that this ultimatum could lead Senate Republicans to consider eliminating the filibuster, a 220-year-old Senate rule requiring most legislation to secure 60 votes for passage. Ornstein suggests that the fear of losing control of the Senate in the upcoming midterm elections may drive Republicans to abandon this longstanding rule to ensure the passage of the SAVE Act.

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Critics of the SAVE Act argue that it could disproportionately burden eligible voters. According to estimates, 52% of registered voters lack an unexpired passport, and 11% do not have access to their birth certificates, which are necessary documents for compliance with the proposed law. Ornstein expressed concern that Senate Republicans might prioritize their political survival over democratic principles, stating, “they’ll do anything to save their own skins, even if it destroys democracy.”

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As the midterm elections approach, Senate Republicans are increasingly anxious about their electoral prospects. Ornstein noted that they are particularly worried about vulnerable seats in states like Maine, Ohio, Texas, Montana, and Nebraska. The potential for losing these seats adds urgency to Trump's demands and the possibility of changing Senate rules.

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In a related political development, Rep. Kevin Kiley of California has announced his departure from the Republican Party to serve as an independent. Kiley's decision comes as he prepares for a challenging reelection campaign in a newly drawn Democratic-leaning district. He cited his discontent with gerrymandering as a primary reason for his switch, stating that it elevates partisanship above governance. Kiley plans to continue caucusing with Republicans to maintain his committee assignments, but he has left open the possibility of aligning with Democrats if elected.

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Kiley's transition to independent status adds to the challenges facing Republican leadership, particularly as they seek to maintain their slim majority in the House of Representatives. With Kiley's departure, Republicans now hold a 217-214 majority, which could further complicate their legislative agenda amid the pressures of the upcoming elections.

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While Ornstein predicts that Senate Republicans may eliminate the filibuster to pass the SAVE Act, there is no consensus on whether this will occur. The dynamics within the party and the potential backlash from constituents remain uncertain. Additionally, Kiley's future political alignment and its impact on the House dynamics are yet to be fully realized.

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• “If Senate Republicans believe that they could lose their majority in the Senate, they will in a nanosecond change their rules to jam through the SAVE Act so that their voter suppression can guarantee them a victory even when the vast majority of voters are opposed to them,” — Norm Ornstein, Congressional Scholar

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• “I reached the decision that, since gerrymandering seeks to elevate partisanship above everything else in our politics and governance — seeks to make it the sum and substance of our politics — then the best way to counter gerrymandering and its insidious impacts on democracy is simply to take partisanship out of the equation,” — Kevin Kiley, Independent Congressman

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As the midterm elections draw near, the interplay between Trump's SAVE Act and the evolving political landscape, including Kiley's independent status, will be critical in shaping the future of the Republican Party and its legislative strategies.

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