Iceland's Potential Path to EU Membership

Iceland is poised to potentially become the European Union's 28th member, with Foreign Minister Þorgerður Katrín Gunnarsdóttir indicating that accession talks could conclude within “a year and a half.” A referendum scheduled for August 29 will determine whether Iceland will relaunch its previously stalled negotiations to join the EU. Recent polling data from Gallup suggests a closely contested vote, with 52% of respondents in favor and 48% opposed to the move.

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Iceland initially applied for EU membership in 2009 during a financial crisis but suspended talks in 2013 due to disputes over fishing policies and changing economic conditions. The country formally withdrew its application in 2015 after closing 11 of the 33 negotiating chapters. This history has led to questions about the feasibility of reinitiating talks, especially in light of Iceland's existing participation in the European Economic Area and the Schengen free travel zone, which means many EU laws are already integrated into Icelandic legislation.

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Þorgerður emphasized that joining the EU would provide significant economic and security benefits for Iceland, particularly in a time of “geopolitical turbulence.” She noted that Iceland faces higher inflation and interest rates compared to other European nations and that monopolies within its economy pose challenges. The minister argued that EU membership would create a more stable environment for Icelandic businesses and industries.

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Þorgerður also highlighted the advantages for the EU in having Iceland as a member, describing the country as geostrategically significant and economically prosperous. She believes that the timing of the referendum is critical, stating, “we are giving the power to the people,” and advocating for negotiations to commence immediately if the vote favors restarting talks.

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While the pro-EU sentiment is evident, there remains a significant portion of the population that opposes EU membership, primarily due to concerns over fishing rights and national sovereignty. The upcoming referendum will serve as a pivotal moment in determining the future of Iceland's relationship with the EU.

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Should the referendum result in a favorable vote, Iceland would embark on a renewed path toward EU membership negotiations, potentially positioning itself ahead of Montenegro, which is currently further along in its accession process. However, even if negotiations are restarted, Þorgerður cautioned that a subsequent vote would be necessary to finalize any agreement.

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• “Sometimes you don’t have to let the poll lead, but lead yourself,” — Þorgerður Katrín Gunnarsdóttir, Foreign Minister of Iceland

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• “It’s also very important for our businesses, for our industries that we give them a shelter and safeguard them within the Union.” — Þorgerður Katrín Gunnarsdóttir, Foreign Minister of Iceland

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• “I would say it would be beneficial both for Iceland and the European Union to negotiate now, not in two years’ time or whatever, but now.” — Þorgerður Katrín Gunnarsdóttir, Foreign Minister of Iceland

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