Iran's Endurance Strategy in the Ongoing US-Israel Conflict

Iran is currently engaged in a protracted conflict with the United States and Israel, characterized by a strategy of endurance and attrition. This approach aims to outlast its adversaries through sustained military operations, economic disruption, and psychological warfare, rather than seeking immediate military victories.

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Iran's military doctrine, particularly under the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), has evolved significantly over the years. Influenced by past conflicts, such as the Iran-Iraq War, Iran has adopted a "decentralized mosaic defense" strategy. This approach allows for continued resistance even if central command structures are compromised. The IRGC has prepared for a long war, emphasizing resilience, redundancy, and the ability to absorb shocks while maintaining operational capabilities.

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The recent elevation of Mojtaba Khamenei, son of the late Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, to the position of supreme leader underscores the IRGC's influence in Iran's governance and military strategy. Kamal Kharrazi, head of Iran’s Strategic Council on Foreign Relations, has articulated the regime's stance, stating that there is no room for diplomacy with the U.S. and that the conflict will only end through economic pressure.

CNN‘Iran ready for long war’: Senior Iranian official tells CNN diplomacy is off the tableTop official: Iran ready for a long war with US, no more diplomacyIran is ready for a long war with the US, says top officialReutersFortune Magazine

The ongoing conflict has severe implications for global energy markets and regional stability. The Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for oil transport, has seen significant disruptions, with estimates suggesting that up to 20% of the world's oil supply has been affected. This has led to rising oil prices, with Brent crude nearing $100 per barrel, exacerbating inflation and economic pressures globally.

Asia Times

Iranian officials have consistently emphasized their commitment to a long-term conflict. Kharrazi stated, “I don’t see any room for diplomacy anymore,” highlighting the regime's belief that economic pain will compel external actors to intervene on its behalf. U.S. President Donald Trump has indicated that the military campaign will continue until Iran is decisively defeated, yet the situation has evolved into a complex war of attrition.

‘Iran ready for long war’: Senior Iranian official tells CNN diplomacy is off the table

Critics argue that the U.S. and Israeli strategies have underestimated Iran's resilience and ability to adapt. Analysts suggest that the initial military objectives, including regime change, are unlikely to be achieved, as Iran has demonstrated a capacity to absorb attacks and retaliate effectively. The conflict has also raised concerns about the potential for broader regional instability and the implications for U.S. foreign policy.

Asia Times

There are conflicting assessments regarding the extent of damage to Iran's military capabilities. While U.S. officials claim that a significant portion of Iran's arsenal has been destroyed, regional sources suggest that Tehran may still retain a substantial stockpile of missiles, allowing it to continue its campaign for weeks.

Reuters

• “For them, they are waging an existential fight. This is an all-out war,” — Fawaz Gerges, London School of Economics

Reuters

• “The responsibility of the leader of Islamic Republic of Iran is to lead the defense capability of Iran, and therefore, as Ayatollah Khamenei was doing that, now the new leader would do that,” — Kamal Kharrazi, Iranian Official

CNN

• “The big question is who blinks first in this all-out war—Donald Trump or Iran’s leaders?” — Fawaz Gerges, London School of Economics

Reuters

As the conflict continues, both sides face tests of endurance. Iran's ability to sustain its missile campaign and the U.S. and Israel's capacity to manage the economic and military costs will be critical factors in determining the conflict's trajectory. The situation remains fluid, with potential for further escalation and broader geopolitical ramifications.

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