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Fed Rate Cuts Delayed Amid Inflation and Oil Surge

3/12/2026

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Story summary
  • Morgan Stanley says the Federal Reserve may resume rate cuts as early as June, with two quarter-point reductions forecast this year.
  • Rising oil prices tied to the Iran war, $90 per barrel, threaten inflation and could keep unemployment higher through 2028.
  • Investors expect a delay in rate cuts to September, while a left-leaning perspective notes the Federal Reserve struggles to meet its 2% inflation target amid a fragile labor market.