Netanyahu's Political Maneuvering Amid the Iran War

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is leveraging the ongoing conflict with Iran and its proxies to stabilize his precarious political standing. Amidst a multifront war, Netanyahu faces significant challenges, including a corruption trial and internal coalition pressures, which he is attempting to navigate by framing the conflict as a national existential crisis.

(The) Atlantic

Netanyahu's coalition government requires the passage of a budget by the end of March 2026 to avoid new elections. The ultra-Orthodox parties, holding 18 of the coalition's 64 seats, have threatened to withhold support unless legislation is passed to exempt yeshiva students from military service. This exemption is increasingly unpopular among the Israeli public, with approximately 70% opposing it, especially during wartime. The ongoing conflict has temporarily shifted focus, allowing Netanyahu to delay contentious budget negotiations.

(The) Atlantic

Netanyahu's political strategy is supported by U.S. President Donald Trump, who has publicly urged Netanyahu to concentrate on the war rather than his legal troubles. Trump's backing comes amid his own electoral challenges, as he faces midterm elections with low approval ratings. Netanyahu's coalition dynamics are further complicated by the upcoming elections, where Arab parties are expected to run together, potentially altering the political landscape.

Foreign Policy

The Iran war serves as a double-edged sword for Netanyahu. While it may rally public support in the short term, the long-term implications could be detrimental. The Israeli public's trust in Netanyahu has waned, particularly following the October 7, 2023, Hamas-led attacks that resulted in significant casualties. The war's outcome could influence public sentiment and electoral prospects, as many Israelis remain skeptical of Netanyahu's leadership.

(The) Atlantic

Critics argue that Netanyahu's focus on the Iran conflict is a diversion from his failures, including the inability to prevent the October attacks. Opposition voices highlight the potential backlash from the ultra-Orthodox community regarding military service exemptions, which could alienate voters. Additionally, there are concerns about the sustainability of the war effort, as public support may wane if the conflict drags on without clear victories.

(The) Atlantic

While current polls indicate that a majority of Jewish Israelis support the war, skepticism remains regarding Netanyahu's ability to maintain this support. The public's long-standing distrust of Netanyahu and his hard-right coalition complicates predictions about the war's impact on future elections. Moreover, the U.S. public's support for the conflict is notably low, with only a quarter backing the military engagement.

Foreign Policy

• “I don’t want anything on Bibi’s mind other than fighting against Iran,” — Donald Trump, U.S. President

(The) Atlantic

• “Anyone who thinks that a gun to the head and external threats will influence the president to deviate from the proper administration of the law does not know the people involved and has no idea what he is talking about,” — Michael Herzog, Former Ambassador to the U.S.

(The) Atlantic

As the conflict continues, Netanyahu's political future hangs in the balance. The upcoming elections and the war's trajectory will be critical in determining whether he can maintain power or if the mounting pressures will lead to his political downfall. The interplay between military success and public opinion will be pivotal in shaping Israel's political landscape in the coming months.

Foreign Policy