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Congress Moves to Ban Insider Trading in Prediction Markets

3/12/2026

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Summary

Story summary

Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi are gaining traction as tools to forecast real-life events.
These markets provide real-time data that can complement traditional polling.
Congress has introduced a bill to ban insider trading in prediction markets, citing national security risks.
News organizations view these markets as aids to forecasting, not definitive sources.
The media–market relationship is evolving.

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Story summary

Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi are gaining traction as tools to forecast real-life events.
These markets provide real-time data that can complement traditional polling.
Congress has introduced a bill to ban insider trading in prediction markets, citing national security risks.
News organizations view these markets as aids to forecasting, not definitive sources.
The media–market relationship is evolving.