Story perspectives

Economist Wins $128K Betting Against Musk's Spending Claims

3/12/2026

Summary

Story summary

Alan Cole, a tax economist, won over $128,000 by betting against Elon Musk's claim that a temporary DOGE initiative would cut federal spending.
The bet proved correct as Musk's promises were unrealistic about reducing federal spending, since government outlays would increase.
The article critiques political and financial elites who misjudged U.S. President Donald Trump, saying misinformation and unrecognized risks from his decisions, especially Iran's economic impacts.

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Story summary

Alan Cole, a tax economist, won over $128,000 by betting against Elon Musk's claim that a temporary DOGE initiative would cut federal spending.
The bet proved correct as Musk's promises were unrealistic about reducing federal spending, since government outlays would increase.
The article critiques political and financial elites who misjudged U.S. President Donald Trump, saying misinformation and unrecognized risks from his decisions, especially Iran's economic impacts.