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U.S. Treasuries Volatility Hits Nine-Month High Amid Iran Tensions

3/13/2026

25 3 Full Breakdown

Summary

Story summary

U.S. Treasuries' volatility rose to a nine-month high amid inflation fears tied to the Iran conflict.
The ICE BofA Move Index climbed as higher oil prices reduced Treasuries' appeal.
Yields on 30-year Treasuries reached a monthly high, while traders trimmed expectations for 2026 Fed cuts.
Experts warn prolonged geopolitical tensions could strain the U.S. fiscal position and raise uncertainty.

History

Historical Context

The Iran Hostage Crisis began on November 4, 1979, when Iranian students seized the U.S. Embassy in Tehran, holding 52 Americans hostage for 444 days. This event led to soaring oil prices and inflation peaking at 13.5%, destabilizing the U.S. economy. The crisis ended with the Algiers Accords in January 1981, which established a framework for resolving U.S.-Iran relations and returning hostages.

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Story summary

U.S. Treasuries' volatility rose to a nine-month high amid inflation fears tied to the Iran conflict.
The ICE BofA Move Index climbed as higher oil prices reduced Treasuries' appeal.
Yields on 30-year Treasuries reached a monthly high, while traders trimmed expectations for 2026 Fed cuts.
Experts warn prolonged geopolitical tensions could strain the U.S. fiscal position and raise uncertainty.

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