The Gulf States' Response to the US-Israel War on Iran: A Complex Dilemma

The ongoing war initiated by the United States and Israel against Iran has dramatically escalated tensions in the Gulf region, with significant implications for the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states—Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Qatar, Kuwait, Oman, and Bahrain. Since the conflict began on February 28, 2026, Iran has launched thousands of missiles and drones targeting these nations, causing widespread economic disruption and raising questions about their security strategies. The Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime passage for global oil supplies, has effectively been closed, leading to a severe reduction in oil exports and significant financial losses for Gulf economies.

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The economic fallout from the conflict has been profound. Experts estimate that Gulf states are losing between $700 million and $1.2 billion daily in oil revenues due to the disruption of exports through the Strait of Hormuz. The aviation sector has also been severely affected, with approximately 40,000 flights canceled, marking the largest disruption to global air travel since the COVID-19 pandemic. The costs of intercepting Iranian missiles and drones have soared, with the UAE alone spending upwards of $2 billion on air defense systems. This financial burden has led to a reassessment of the Gulf states' reliance on the United States for military protection, as many feel they are bearing the brunt of a conflict they did not initiate.

Gulf States Bear the Fallout of a War They Didn’t Start

While the GCC states have publicly condemned Iran's attacks, there is a growing sentiment of frustration towards the United States for its unilateral military actions. Gulf leaders had previously urged President Donald Trump to pursue diplomatic solutions rather than military escalation. The perceived lack of consultation from Washington has led to a crisis of confidence in the US-Gulf partnership. Analysts note that Gulf states are now caught in a precarious position: they must navigate their relationship with Iran, a neighbor they cannot ignore, while also managing their ties with the US, which has historically provided security.

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Critics within the Gulf region have expressed deep concerns about the US's approach to the conflict. Ebtesam Al-Ketbi, President of the Emirates Policy Center, articulated that Gulf nations did not seek this war and are now facing its economic and security consequences. Prominent Emirati businessman Khalaf Al Habtoor questioned whether the US and Israel fully considered the regional ramifications of their military actions. The sentiment reflects a broader anxiety that the Gulf states are being drawn into a conflict shaped by external powers without their input.

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As the war continues, Gulf states are exploring ways to stabilize their economies and security. Some leaders advocate for a diversified approach to foreign relations, seeking to strengthen partnerships beyond the US while maintaining a cautious stance towards Iran. The potential for a weakened but vengeful Iran poses a significant threat, as Gulf states fear the consequences of a power vacuum should the Iranian regime collapse.

Gulf States Bear the Fallout of a War They Didn’t Start

The war has irrevocably altered the geopolitical landscape of the Gulf region. As the conflict unfolds, Gulf states are likely to accelerate efforts to enhance their military capabilities and reassess their strategic alliances. The long-term implications of this conflict will shape not only the future of the Gulf states but also the broader dynamics of Middle Eastern politics. The need for a balanced approach to security and diplomacy has never been more critical as the region grapples with the fallout from a war they did not choose.

New Yorker