Full Breakdown
Impact of the Iran War on Global Fertilizer and Food Prices
3/15/2026, 8:55:59 AM
Fertilizer Supply Disruptions Due to Conflict
The ongoing conflict involving Iran has significantly disrupted global fertilizer supplies, which are crucial for food production. The Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping route through which approximately one-third of the world’s fertilizer ingredients transit, has been effectively closed since the U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran began on February 28, 2026. This closure has led to direct attacks on cargo ships and fears of sea mines, causing shipping companies to avoid the strait. As a result, oil prices have surged, with U.S. crude reaching over $99 per barrel, up nearly 50% since the conflict's onset.
The Middle East is a key player in fertilizer production, with countries like Egypt, Iran, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates accounting for nearly 49% of global urea exports and about 30% of ammonia exports. The disruption in this region poses a risk to the global food supply chain, as highlighted by Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, who noted that supply disruptions can ripple through agricultural markets, leading to increased food prices.
Rising Costs and Impacts on U.S. Farmers
U.S. farmers are already feeling the impact of rising fertilizer costs. John Boyd Jr., a Virginia farmer, reported that his fertilizer supplier has warned of potential shipment delays due to the war. Prices for ammonia and urea have skyrocketed, with Middle Eastern ammonia prices up 92% and urea prices up 70% compared to the previous year. In the U.S., ammonia prices have risen 41%, while urea prices have increased by 21%. These rising costs are expected to contribute to higher prices at supermarkets, with grocery prices already up 2.4% year-over-year.
As planting season approaches, the urgency to secure fertilizer is critical. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins indicated that while most farmers have purchased their fertilizer, about 25% have not, leaving them vulnerable to price increases. The Trump administration is reportedly close to announcing solutions to mitigate these rising costs.
Global Fuel Shortages and Agricultural Challenges
In addition to fertilizer shortages, the war has also led to fuel supply issues, further complicating agricultural operations. Farmers in regions like Asia and Europe are facing fuel delivery cutbacks, which are essential for operating machinery. For instance, farmers in Bangladesh are struggling to secure diesel for irrigation, while Australian farmers are finding it increasingly difficult to obtain fuel for planting.
The scarcity of fuel could disrupt farming schedules, leading to delayed sowing and potentially lower crop yields. Paul Joules, a farm-input analyst, warned of long-term inflation issues on the input side, which could eventually be passed on to consumers.
Official Responses and Future Outlook
The U.S. government is actively monitoring the situation and considering various avenues to control fertilizer costs. Meanwhile, Senator Josh Hawley has called for an investigation into potential price-gouging by fertilizer companies, as prices have surged by as much as 32% since the war began.
As the conflict continues, the implications for global food security and inflation remain significant. The interconnectedness of fertilizer and fuel supplies means that disruptions in one area can have cascading effects on food prices and availability worldwide.
Verbatim Quotes
- “If I don’t apply fertilizer, that means I won’t have the yields to make my crop,” — John Boyd Jr., Farmer
- “Higher fertilizer costs will contribute to higher prices at U.S. supermarkets,” — Joe Brusuelas, Chief Economist at RSM
- “It's not like there's a whole lot of fertilizer sitting on the shelf,” — Veronica Nigh, Economist at The Fertilizer Institute
- “we will have some severe problems as we go into the planting season.” — Rhys Turton, Farmer and Chair of Grain Growers Ltd.
