Story perspectives

Democrats' Midterm Odds Surge Amid Trump’s Declining Approval

3/15/2026

Center

Democrats' Midterm Momentum

Kalshi and Polymarket project Democrats have a chance to regain control of the House and Senate in the November 2026 midterms, 50% and 49.8%.
This marks the highest Democratic likelihood since the 2024 Republican sweep.
National polling shows Democrats leading Republicans by four to five points on the generic ballot.
All U.S. House seats will be contested in 2026, with President Donald Trump’s declining approval ratings potentially influencing voter sentiment.

Right

Republicans' Midterm Defense

Republicans aim to defend their congressional majority in the 2026 midterm elections.
Senate GOP chair Tim Scott remains optimistic about expanding the 53-47 majority despite inflation and U.S. President Donald Trump’s low approval ratings.
In Texas, John Cornyn faces a competitive primary.
In Michigan, Republicans hope to flip a seat with former Representative Mike Rogers.
In North Carolina, former Governor Roy Cooper is a strong Democratic candidate against GOP contenders.

1 of 2

Democrats' Midterm Momentum

Kalshi and Polymarket project Democrats have a chance to regain control of the House and Senate in the November 2026 midterms, 50% and 49.8%.
This marks the highest Democratic likelihood since the 2024 Republican sweep.
National polling shows Democrats leading Republicans by four to five points on the generic ballot.
All U.S. House seats will be contested in 2026, with President Donald Trump’s declining approval ratings potentially influencing voter sentiment.

1 / 2