Full Breakdown
Indonesia's Response to the US-Israel War in Iran: A Complex Landscape
3/16/2026, 1:14:48 AM
Prabowo Subianto's Perspective on the Conflict
Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto has expressed significant concern regarding the ongoing US-Israel war in Iran, stating he is “pretty surprised” by the military campaign and perceives a lack of “rationality” in the actions taken. In recent interviews, Prabowo revealed that Iranian officials have conveyed their reluctance to negotiate with the US, feeling they have been “tricked” in past dealings. He emphasized the challenges faced by Iran in an asymmetrical war, noting that their primary objective is survival. Prabowo, a retired general, has offered to mediate the conflict but has faced domestic criticism for his association with US President Donald Trump’s “Board of Peace,” which aims to address the situation in Gaza.
Domestic Implications of the Conflict
The war has exacerbated existing economic challenges in Indonesia, particularly as the country prepares for the Eid Al-Fitr holiday, a time when fuel consumption typically surges. The conflict has disrupted energy supplies from the Middle East, leading to rising fuel prices and shortages. Analysts warn that the Indonesian government may be underestimating the severity of the energy crisis, which threatens to increase inflation and strain public finances. Prabowo's administration has been criticized for not presenting concrete solutions to the public, raising concerns about the potential for civil unrest as fuel prices rise.
Energy Crisis and Economic Strain
Indonesia, as Southeast Asia's largest economy, is heavily reliant on fuel imports, sourcing much of its crude from regions now affected by the war. The country has limited energy reserves, with current stocks of liquefied petroleum gas estimated to last only 12 to 15 days. Prabowo has called for measures to cut costs and fuel consumption, but details remain vague. The government has ruled out any immediate increase in fuel prices ahead of Eid, which could further complicate fiscal management as subsidy spending is expected to balloon.
Criticism and Opposition
Prabowo's involvement in the Board of Peace has sparked backlash from various factions within Indonesia, including Islamic clerical bodies and political critics who demand a withdrawal from the initiative. This domestic pressure has forced the government to reconsider its diplomatic stance, with Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi confirming that discussions related to the Board are currently on hold. The political landscape in Indonesia complicates Prabowo's ability to navigate foreign policy, as public sentiment increasingly favors a more cautious approach.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
While Prabowo has emphasized the need for peaceful solutions, there is a notable lack of clarity regarding Indonesia's long-term strategy in response to the conflict. Some sources suggest that the government may pursue a “passive quitting” approach regarding the Board of Peace, but this remains speculative. Additionally, the extent of the economic impact from rising fuel prices and potential civil unrest is still unfolding, with varying assessments from analysts regarding the government's preparedness for the crisis.
Verbatim Quotes
- “And I’m saddened. I don’t feel there’s any rationality in this.” — Prabowo Subianto, President of Indonesia
- “Every policy will have pros and cons,” — Prabowo Subianto, regarding his role in the Board of Peace
- “It’s very difficult to conduct these operations just purely from the air,” — Prabowo Subianto, on US military strategy in Iran
As the situation evolves, Indonesia's response to the US-Israel war in Iran will likely continue to shape both its domestic policies and international relations.
