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Labour Faces Collapse in Birmingham; Reform UK Set to Rise

3/15/2026

46 7 Full Breakdown

Center

Reform UK Surges

A weekly poll by Bombe predicts the Labour Party will be wiped out in Birmingham's local elections, with Reform UK gaining control.
The poll forecasts Reform UK will take two Black Country councils and win a substantial share of Birmingham's seats.
Labour's support is projected to collapse as Independents and Greens are expected to perform well.
The model updates weekly and emphasizes local campaigning.

Left

Reform UK Gains Support

A poll shows Reform UK gaining support among gay and bisexual men, at 25% versus 19% for the Green Party.
Among straight men, Reform leads at 33% and Labour 22%.
The poll shows Reform UK 7 points ahead of Labour, with 28% voter intention.
Public satisfaction with government policies remains low at 21%.
Keir Starmer (Labour Party leader) has seen approval ratings decline.

History

Historical Context

Since 2012, Birmingham City Council has been under Labour control, following a period of no overall control from 2003 to 2012. The Conservative Party's 30% vote share in the 2012 local elections indicated rising voter discontent with traditional parties. This trend continues today, as predictions suggest Reform UK may gain influence, reflecting ongoing shifts in local political dynamics and public sentiment.

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Reform UK Surges

A weekly poll by Bombe predicts the Labour Party will be wiped out in Birmingham's local elections, with Reform UK gaining control.
The poll forecasts Reform UK will take two Black Country councils and win a substantial share of Birmingham's seats.
Labour's support is projected to collapse as Independents and Greens are expected to perform well.
The model updates weekly and emphasizes local campaigning.

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