Full Breakdown
2026 Fantasy Baseball Draft Insights: Sleepers, Breakouts, and Busts
3/16/2026, 4:54:00 PM
Key Fantasy Baseball Picks for 2026
As the 2026 MLB regular season approaches, Fantasy baseball enthusiasts are gearing up for draft season. The early average draft position (ADP) indicates that two-way player Shohei Ohtani is the most sought-after pick, followed by Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, Bobby Witt, and Jose Ramirez. Among pitchers, Tarik Skubal and Paul Skenes are the top choices, while Mason Miller leads as the preferred reliever. However, identifying value in the mid-to-late rounds is crucial for assembling a competitive roster.
Promising Sleepers for 2026
One notable sleeper identified by SportsLine's Projection Model is Brandon Lowe, the Pittsburgh Pirates' second baseman. After being traded from the Tampa Bay Rays, Lowe is projected to hit near the top of the order. His 2025 season showcased a resurgence with 31 home runs and 83 RBIs, making him a valuable pick at an ADP of 118. The model ranks him as the sixth-best second baseman, ahead of established players like Nico Hoerner and Marcus Semien.
Breakout Candidates to Watch
The model also highlights Jonathan Aranda, a first baseman for the Tampa Bay Rays, as a breakout candidate. After a strong 2025 season where he hit .316 with 14 home runs, Aranda is expected to secure a regular role, with an ADP of 148. Additionally, Samuel Basallo, a catcher for the Baltimore Orioles, is projected to provide significant value as he transitions to a designated hitter role. With a career minor league total of 73 home runs, Basallo has the potential to be a power asset, currently holding an ADP of 231.
Players to Avoid: Busts for 2026
Conversely, the model has flagged several players as potential busts. Mookie Betts of the Los Angeles Dodgers is highlighted due to declining performance, including a career-low batting average of .258 in 2025. Betts, with an ADP of 43, is projected to underperform compared to players like Jeremy Pena and Corey Seager, who are being drafted later.
Another player to be cautious of is Pete Alonso, who recently joined the Baltimore Orioles. Despite a strong previous season, Alonso's metrics suggest potential regression, with a concerning home run rate of 5.4%. His ADP of 32 places him significantly higher than projected peers like Michael Busch.
Conclusion: Strategic Drafting for Success
As Fantasy baseball drafts approach, understanding which players to target and which to avoid can significantly impact league outcomes. SportsLine's model provides comprehensive rankings and cheat sheets, updated frequently to reflect the latest MLB developments. By leveraging these insights, Fantasy managers can enhance their chances of building a championship-caliber team in 2026.
