The Impact of Operation Roaring Lion on Iran's Political Landscape

On February 28, 2025, Israel and the United States launched Operation Roaring Lion, a joint aerial campaign targeting the Iranian regime's infrastructure. This operation resulted in the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei within minutes and has since led to extensive strikes on military installations and command structures associated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and Basij checkpoints. The operation has been met with a mix of hope and fear among the Iranian diaspora, who have expressed gratitude for external support while also worrying about the implications for their families in Iran.

The Jerusalem Post

Iran's complex relationship with the West has deep historical roots, including the 1953 coup that ousted Prime Minister Mohammad Mossadegh, supported by the United States and Britain. This event fostered a long-standing perception of the U.S. as an adversary, culminating in the 1979 Iranian Revolution, which established the Islamic Republic under Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. The regime's narrative has often framed its struggles as a fight against foreign imperialism, a sentiment that continues to resonate in the current geopolitical climate.

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In the wake of Operation Roaring Lion, Iranian officials have attempted to counter the narrative surrounding the strikes. Ali Larijani, Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council of Iran, claimed that the U.S. and Israel are attempting to create a false narrative to justify their actions. He stated, “Iran fundamentally opposes such terrorist schemes and has no war with the American people.” This reflects a broader strategy to invoke conspiracy theories, such as linking the Jeffrey Epstein scandal to U.S. military operations, in an effort to sway public opinion against the West.

The Jerusalem Post

Bishop Guli Francis-Dehqani, an Anglican bishop with roots in Iran, has voiced her concerns about the regime's future, stating it is "in its death throes" but cautioned that it should not be underestimated. She expressed fears of potential civil unrest and violence, noting that the regime's brutal crackdowns are indicative of its desperation to maintain power. Francis-Dehqani emphasized that any change must come from within Iran, warning against external interventions that could exacerbate the situation.

The Independent

While many reports highlight a sense of joy among some Iranians regarding the strikes on regime targets, there are also accounts of fear and uncertainty about the future. Bishop Francis-Dehqani noted that communication with individuals in Iran has become increasingly difficult, raising concerns about the regime's response to dissent and the potential for escalating violence.

The Independent

• “I’ve heard that the remaining members of Epstein’s network have devised a conspiracy to create an incident similar to 9/11 and blame Iran for it. Iran fundamentally opposes such terrorist schemes and has no war with the American people.” — Ali Larijani, Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council of Iran

The Jerusalem Post

• “I think everything they’re doing is about surviving another day, hence the brutality of the crackdown we saw at the end of last year into the beginning of this.” — Rt Rev Guli Francis-Dehqani, Bishop of Chelmsford

The Independent

The ongoing conflict and the aftermath of Operation Roaring Lion may lead to significant changes within Iran. As the regime grapples with internal dissent and external pressures, the potential for civil unrest remains high. Observers are closely monitoring the situation, as the dynamics of power within Iran continue to evolve in response to both domestic and international developments.

Bookshelf: Iran’s grand strategy