Full Breakdown
Impact of the Iran Conflict on Global Food Prices
3/18/2026, 12:53:38 AM
Rising Costs of Fertilizers and Fuel
The ongoing conflict in Iran is significantly affecting global food prices, primarily through rising costs of fertilizers and fuel. Andrew Williamson, a farmer from Shropshire, UK, highlighted that the price of nitrogen fertilizers has surged by 50% since July 2025, from £330 to £490 per tonne. This increase is attributed to volatile natural gas prices, which constitute 60-80% of fertilizer production costs. The National Farmers' Union (NFU) has warned that the crisis follows two poor harvests, exacerbating the financial strain on farmers who are already struggling to break even.
In the U.S., the situation mirrors that of the UK. John Boyd Jr., a Virginia farmer, reported that his fertilizer supplier has warned of potential shipment delays due to the conflict. Fertilizer prices in the Middle East have risen dramatically, with ammonia prices up 92% and urea prices up 70% compared to the previous year. These increases are expected to contribute to higher prices at supermarkets, as farmers face escalating production costs.
Global Supply Chain Disruptions
The Strait of Hormuz, a crucial shipping route for approximately one-third of the world’s fertilizer and one-fifth of global oil supplies, has become a focal point of disruption due to military actions. Since the U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran began, shipping companies have avoided the strait, leading to hundreds of tankers idling nearby. This blockade has raised concerns about the availability of essential agricultural inputs, impacting food production worldwide.
Tom Bradshaw, chairman of the NFU, warned that the current crisis could lead to empty supermarket shelves in the UK if the agriculture sector does not receive adequate support. He noted that the inflationary wave triggered by the conflict could peak in the autumn, although it may not surpass the 19.2% rise in food prices seen following the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Official Responses and Consumer Impact
Governments are beginning to respond to the crisis. U.S. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins indicated that while most farmers have secured their fertilizer for the planting season, about 25% have not, leaving them vulnerable to price increases. In the UK, the Competition and Markets Authority is monitoring the situation to prevent potential price gouging by suppliers.
Williamson emphasized the need for transparency in the fuel supply chain, stating that farmers cannot easily pass on rising costs to consumers. He expressed frustration over the unpredictability of prices, which complicates long-term agricultural planning. The NFU has called for urgent measures to enhance resilience in UK farming, particularly in light of the reliance on imports for a significant portion of the country’s food supply.
Criticism and Concerns
Critics have raised alarms about the potential for profiteering amid the crisis. The NFU's Bradshaw noted that suppliers may exploit the situation to inflate prices beyond genuine cost increases. The Soil Association echoed these concerns, emphasizing the vulnerability of the UK’s food system to global supply shocks.
As the conflict continues, farmers and consumers alike are bracing for the repercussions on food prices. With planting season underway, any further disruptions to fertilizer supplies could exacerbate the situation, leading to reduced crop yields and heightened food insecurity.
Verbatim Quotes
- “Farming is a long-term investment, we're two years from when we purchase things to when we [see] return from it,” — Andrew Williamson, Farmer
- “If I don’t apply fertilizer, that means I won’t have the yields to make my crop,” — John Boyd Jr., Farmer
- “It's deeply concerning that we are one of the least food self-sufficient countries in Europe.” — Gareth Morgan, Soil Association
The ongoing conflict in Iran is poised to have lasting effects on food prices globally, with farmers and consumers facing an uncertain future as supply chains remain disrupted.
