AIPAC's Influence in Illinois Democratic Primaries Under Scrutiny

The American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) is investing nearly $22 million in the Illinois Democratic primaries, aiming to influence key House races amid shifting sentiments towards Israel among Democrats. This significant financial commitment comes as AIPAC grapples with declining support for its policies, particularly in light of recent conflicts involving Israel. The group has employed various political action committees (PACs) to obscure the origins of its funding, focusing its advertising efforts on candidates rather than explicitly promoting its pro-Israel agenda.

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In the 9th Congressional District, AIPAC initially targeted Evanston Mayor Daniel Biss, a Jewish candidate critical of some Israeli policies, but has since shifted its focus to Palestinian-American candidate Kat Abughazaleh, who is openly critical of Israel. This tactical pivot follows a backlash from previous interventions, such as AIPAC's unsuccessful attempt to defeat former Rep. Tom Malinowski in New Jersey, which resulted in a progressive candidate's victory.

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The Illinois primaries are characterized by a crowded field of candidates vying for open seats due to retirements, including that of Rep. Jan Schakowsky. In the 9th District, Abughazaleh is competing against Biss and state Senator Laura Fine, who is seen as AIPAC's preferred candidate. AIPAC's spending has reportedly included over $6 million in support of Fine while simultaneously attacking Biss. Local strategists have noted a change in AIPAC's tactics, indicating a recognition of the backlash against its previous strategies.

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In addition to the 9th District, AIPAC's influence extends to other races, including the 2nd District, where Cook County Commissioner Donna Miller is receiving substantial support. However, candidates like Jesse Jackson Jr. and state Representative Robert Peters are also in the mix, complicating AIPAC's efforts.

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AIPAC's interventions have drawn criticism from various quarters, particularly from progressive groups and candidates who argue that the organization's tactics reflect a growing unpopularity within the Democratic Party. Critics, including members of the Justice Democrats, have labeled AIPAC as a "toxic" force, asserting that its reliance on "dark money" and covert PACs demonstrates an awareness of its declining influence.

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Daniel Biss has expressed concerns about AIPAC's attempts to control the narrative around candidates who oppose unconditional military aid to Israel, suggesting that such actions could provoke a backlash among voters. Abughazaleh has characterized AIPAC's shift in focus as a sign of panic, indicating that the organization is struggling to maintain its grip on Democratic politics.

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AIPAC spokesperson Deryn Sousa stated, “Our members are focused on building strong bipartisan support for the U.S.-Israel partnership in the 120th Congress.” However, the organization has refrained from commenting on its specific strategies in Illinois, including the use of shell PACs to funnel support to candidates.

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While AIPAC's financial influence is evident, there are discrepancies regarding the effectiveness of its spending. Some sources indicate that AIPAC's interventions may inadvertently bolster candidates opposed to its agenda, as seen in the New Jersey primary. Additionally, the extent of voter backlash against AIPAC's tactics remains uncertain, with varying opinions on how these dynamics will play out in the upcoming elections.

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As the Illinois primaries approach, the outcomes will serve as a critical test for AIPAC's influence within the Democratic Party and the broader implications for pro-Israel politics in the U.S. The results may signal whether AIPAC can adapt to the changing political landscape or if its strategies will continue to provoke resistance among progressive voters.

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