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El-Erian: Iran War Boosts US Recession Risk to 35%

3/18/2026

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Story summary
  • Economist Mohamed El-Erian warns that the ongoing Iran war raises US recession risk from 25% to 35%.
  • He cites oil prices near $100 per barrel as a key driver of inflation and shocks.
  • Recent indicators show weak growth, with fourth-quarter GDP revised to 0.7% and February jobs down 92,000.
  • Prolonged conflict could worsen these trends, triggering stagflation and higher risks in financial markets, especially private credit.