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Fed Rate Cuts Loom Amid Oil Price Surge

3/18/2026

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Summary

Story summary

Morgan Stanley forecasts the Federal Reserve will resume rate cuts in June and September, despite rising oil prices from the Iran war.
Michael Gapen warns oil at $125–$150 per barrel could raise recession risk to about 20%.
Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson says half the stock market is in a bear phase.
Asian strategists warn of potential global stock drawdowns, while major banks remain optimistic about U.S. stocks.

History

Historical Context

The Federal Reserve cut interest rates to near-zero in December 2008 following the 2008 financial crisis, which was triggered by the collapse of Lehman Brothers and the subprime mortgage crisis. This unprecedented move aimed to stimulate the economy and prevent further recession. Today, Morgan Stanley's forecast of rate cuts amid rising oil prices reflects ongoing concerns about inflation and economic stability, reminiscent of past strategies.

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Story summary

Morgan Stanley forecasts the Federal Reserve will resume rate cuts in June and September, despite rising oil prices from the Iran war.
Michael Gapen warns oil at $125–$150 per barrel could raise recession risk to about 20%.
Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson says half the stock market is in a bear phase.
Asian strategists warn of potential global stock drawdowns, while major banks remain optimistic about U.S. stocks.

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