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Rising Oil Prices Heighten U.S. Recession Fears

3/18/2026

38 7 Full Breakdown

Summary

Story summary

Rising oil prices linked to Middle East tensions raise U.S. recession risk.
Moody's Chief Economist Mark Zandi says the probability of a downturn could exceed 49%.
Since World War II, every recession except the pandemic was preceded by rising oil prices.
The U.S. labor market shows weakness with job losses in February.
Some economists remain hesitant to declare a recession, citing previous mispredictions.

History

Historical Context

The 1973 oil crisis, triggered by the Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries' embargo during the Yom Kippur War, quadrupled oil prices from $3 to nearly $12 per barrel, leading to a U.S. recession and inflation exceeding 12%. This event marked a shift in economic power from consumers to oil producers, with lasting effects on global economies and energy policies, echoing today's rising oil prices amid Middle East tensions.

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Story summary

Rising oil prices linked to Middle East tensions raise U.S. recession risk.
Moody's Chief Economist Mark Zandi says the probability of a downturn could exceed 49%.
Since World War II, every recession except the pandemic was preceded by rising oil prices.
The U.S. labor market shows weakness with job losses in February.
Some economists remain hesitant to declare a recession, citing previous mispredictions.

1 / 2