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Fed Holds Rates Amid Inflation, Signals Future Cuts

3/18/2026

42 9 Full Breakdown

Summary

Powell Signals Rate Cuts

The US Federal Reserve kept the federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75% and signaled cuts later this year and next, influenced by inflation and the Iran conflict's impact on oil prices.
Inflation remains elevated, as the producer price index rose significantly.
Traders reduced expectations for rate cuts this year after the inflation data.
Jerome Powell, Fed Chair, is expected to address the economy and monetary policy after the meeting.

Summary

Economists Forecast Recession

The CNBC Fed Survey projects oil at $88 per barrel in six months and estimates inflation would rise 0.5% and growth would slow 0.3%.
The survey shows the probability of a recession in the next year rising to 31%.
Economists say the forecast hinges on oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz resuming soon.
The survey expects 1.8 Federal Reserve rate cuts this year, versus the market’s expectation of one.

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Powell Signals Rate Cuts

The US Federal Reserve kept the federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75% and signaled cuts later this year and next, influenced by inflation and the Iran conflict's impact on oil prices.
Inflation remains elevated, as the producer price index rose significantly.
Traders reduced expectations for rate cuts this year after the inflation data.
Jerome Powell, Fed Chair, is expected to address the economy and monetary policy after the meeting.

1 / 2