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Moody's Warns: 48.6% Chance of U.S. Recession by 2026

3/18/2026

50 9 Full Breakdown

Summary

Story summary

Moody's forecast puts the probability of a U.S. recession in 2026 at 48.6%.
The rise reflects a weakening job market, higher oil prices, and debt above $39 trillion.
The Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of England, and Bank of Japan meet this week to review growth and inflation.
Analysts expect the group to adjust its forecasts amid ongoing uncertainty, with the Iran war weighing on oil prices and inflation.

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Story summary

Moody's forecast puts the probability of a U.S. recession in 2026 at 48.6%.
The rise reflects a weakening job market, higher oil prices, and debt above $39 trillion.
The Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of England, and Bank of Japan meet this week to review growth and inflation.
Analysts expect the group to adjust its forecasts amid ongoing uncertainty, with the Iran war weighing on oil prices and inflation.