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Betting Chaos: Khamenei's Death Sparks Outrage and Lawsuits

3/20/2026

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Trump Backs Prediction Markets

Following the death of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on February 28, prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket drew bets on geopolitical events.
Kalshi refused payouts, citing regulations against betting on death, sparking outrage and lawsuits from disappointed bettors.
Critics warn these markets could enable insider trading, noting some users profit from timely information.
U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration supports prediction markets and plans a platform called Truth Predict.

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Democrats Ban Prediction Markets

Democrats push to ban prediction markets that bet on government actions in Congress.
Sen. Chris Murphy and Rep. Greg Casar introduced the Banning Event Trading on Sensitive Operations and Federal Functions Act.
Murphy criticized the markets’ legality and alleged insiders close to U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration profited from insider knowledge.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission urges prediction market platforms to work with regulators to prevent abuses.

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Trump Backs Prediction Markets

Following the death of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on February 28, prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket drew bets on geopolitical events.
Kalshi refused payouts, citing regulations against betting on death, sparking outrage and lawsuits from disappointed bettors.
Critics warn these markets could enable insider trading, noting some users profit from timely information.
U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration supports prediction markets and plans a platform called Truth Predict.

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