Story perspectives

WTO Predicts 1.9% Trade Growth Amid Geopolitical Tensions

3/19/2026

Summary

Story summary

The World Trade Organization forecasts merchandise trade growth to 1.9% in 2026, down from 4.6% in 2025, due to Middle East conflict.
Energy prices and supply-chain disruptions, especially via the Strait of Hormuz, threaten trade and food security.
If energy prices stay elevated, trade growth could fall to 1.4%.
Despite challenges, AI-related demand sustained 2025 trade, while the WTO notes geopolitical tensions and AI investment will shape future dynamics.

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Story summary

The World Trade Organization forecasts merchandise trade growth to 1.9% in 2026, down from 4.6% in 2025, due to Middle East conflict.
Energy prices and supply-chain disruptions, especially via the Strait of Hormuz, threaten trade and food security.
If energy prices stay elevated, trade growth could fall to 1.4%.
Despite challenges, AI-related demand sustained 2025 trade, while the WTO notes geopolitical tensions and AI investment will shape future dynamics.