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Wage Growth Slows Amid Rising Energy Prices, ONS Reports

3/19/2026

48 9 Full Breakdown

Summary

ONS Wage Growth Decline

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said wage growth slowed to 3.8% in the three months to January.
The unemployment rate remained at 5.2%, with payroll employment rising by 20,000 in February.
Economists warn that higher energy prices from the Middle East conflict could curb hiring and inflate prices.
The Bank of England is expected to hold the policy rate at 3.75% despite earlier expectations for a rate cut.

Summary

Wales' Employment Challenges

Wales has reported a significant drop in unemployment to 4.5%, still above the UK average of 4.2%.
The Welsh Government cautions these figures may be unreliable due to small Labour Force Survey samples.
Economic inactivity in Wales remains the highest in Great Britain at 25.4%.
Wage growth in Wales is at its lowest in over five years.
The employment rate in Wales stands at 71.9%, the lowest among UK nations.

History

Historical Context

The 2008 UK economic recession, triggered by the global financial crisis, saw unemployment peak at 8.5% and led to significant wage stagnation. The Bank of England responded by cutting interest rates to a historic low of 0.5%. Today, despite wage growth at 3.8% and unemployment at 5.2%, challenges persist, particularly in Wales, where economic inactivity remains the highest in Great Britain at 25.4%.

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ONS Wage Growth Decline

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said wage growth slowed to 3.8% in the three months to January.
The unemployment rate remained at 5.2%, with payroll employment rising by 20,000 in February.
Economists warn that higher energy prices from the Middle East conflict could curb hiring and inflate prices.
The Bank of England is expected to hold the policy rate at 3.75% despite earlier expectations for a rate cut.

1 / 3