Impact of the Strait of Hormuz Blockade on Gulf Food Prices

The ongoing conflict in the Middle East, particularly the war that began on February 28, 2026, due to Israeli-US strikes against Iran, has severely disrupted shipping routes through the strategic Strait of Hormuz. This blockade has led to significant increases in food prices across the Gulf region, particularly affecting countries like Bahrain and Kuwait that rely heavily on imports for their food supply.

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Consumers in Bahrain are already feeling the effects of the blockade, with reports indicating that the price of meat has nearly doubled. Mahmoud Ali, a local resident, noted that while there is no shortage of food, the prices have risen noticeably. Economists, including Frederic Schneider from the Middle East Council on Global Affairs, have highlighted that major ports in the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait, and Bahrain have either suspended or significantly reduced cargo processing. This disruption is compounded by Iranian drone and missile attacks, which have limited air transport capacity.

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Saudi Arabia has emerged as a key supply hub in the region, maintaining open airspace and operational maritime traffic to its Red Sea ports. The kingdom has initiated efforts to enhance its transport networks by establishing new logistics routes to accommodate cargo diverted from eastern ports. However, alternative overland routes to the Mediterranean through Syria or Jordan are described as congested and costly, failing to compensate for the paralysis of traditional maritime routes.

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The Gulf states are not equally prepared for the ongoing crisis. Saudi Arabia has direct access to the Red Sea and claims to have sufficient stockpiles, while the United Arab Emirates asserts it can sustain supplies for four to six months. Qatar has also bolstered its strategic reserves following a previous blockade in 2017. In contrast, Bahrain and Kuwait are experiencing immediate price hikes. In Kuwait, authorities have frozen prices on certain basic products and subsidized meat imports, yet an increase of over 30% for meat and fish has been reported due to the suspension of fishing and halted imports from Iran, India, and Pakistan.

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The private sector is actively working to mitigate the impact of the blockade. The Lulu retail chain, which operates 280 supermarkets in the region, has maintained a reserve stock of non-perishable goods and has chartered special flights to import fresh produce. According to V. Nandakumar, the chain's communications director, over 6,000 tons of fresh produce have been brought in through 37 special chartered flights, with the additional costs not currently being passed on to consumers.

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Officials from the Kuwaiti commerce ministry have indicated that while prices have remained stable overall, the situation remains precarious. Frederic Schneider warned of a tangible risk of a price spiral on imported goods, particularly food, if the conflict persists.

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While some reports suggest that prices are under control for the moment, others indicate that the situation could worsen if the blockade continues. The extent of food shortages and price increases varies significantly across the Gulf states, highlighting disparities in preparedness and resource availability.

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• “There’s no shortage”, but over the past few days “there has been a noticeable increase in the price of certain food products”, the father of four said.” — Mahmoud Ali, Resident of Bahrain

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• “Overall, prices have remained stable,” — Official from the Kuwaiti commerce ministry

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• “there is a certain level of preparedness and prices are elevated but under control for the moment” — Frederic Schneider, Economist

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This situation underscores the complexities of food security in the Gulf region amid geopolitical tensions and highlights the need for coordinated responses to ensure stability in food supplies.

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