Full Breakdown
Pakistan's Evolving Missile Capabilities: A Potential Threat to the U.S.
3/20/2026, 3:09:03 AM
Overview of the Threat Assessment
In a recent testimony before the Senate Intelligence Committee, U.S. Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard identified Pakistan as one of several countries, including Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran, whose advancing missile capabilities could potentially threaten the U.S. homeland. Gabbard's remarks were part of the 2026 Annual Threat Assessment, which projected that the number of missiles capable of threatening the U.S. could rise from over 3,000 today to more than 16,000 by 2035. Gabbard specifically noted that Pakistan's long-range ballistic missile development might include intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) capable of reaching the U.S.
Context of Pakistan's Missile Program
Pakistan's missile program has historically been focused on India, with its longest-range operational missile, the Shaheen-III, having an estimated range of approximately 2,750 kilometers (1,710 miles), sufficient to cover all of India. Experts argue that Pakistan does not currently possess the capability to develop ICBMs that can reach the U.S., as the distance exceeds 11,200 kilometers (7,000 miles). Analysts have suggested that Pakistan's missile capabilities are several years away from being able to target the U.S. directly.
Official Responses and Criticism
Pakistan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs has not yet issued a formal response to Gabbard's testimony. However, former Pakistani officials, including Jalil Abbas Jilani, have publicly rejected the notion that Pakistan poses a direct threat to the U.S. homeland, emphasizing that Pakistan's nuclear doctrine is India-centric and aimed at maintaining credible deterrence in South Asia. Jilani criticized Gabbard's assertions as lacking strategic grounding, stating, “Pakistan’s nuclear doctrine is India-specific, aimed at maintaining credible deterrence in South Asia, not projecting power globally.”
Criticism from Experts
Several experts have pushed back against Gabbard's assessment. Tughral Yamin, a former army brigadier, noted that Pakistan's missile capabilities are primarily designed for regional deterrence rather than global reach. Rabia Akhtar, a nuclear security scholar, argued that Gabbard's statement reflects a flawed understanding of Pakistan's strategic posture, which is focused on deterring India rather than targeting the U.S.
Broader Implications
The U.S. intelligence community's assessment highlights ongoing tensions in South Asia, particularly between Pakistan and India, which remain a significant risk for nuclear conflict. The report referenced the Pahalgam attack in Indian-administered Kashmir as a potential catalyst for crises, emphasizing that conditions exist for terrorist actors to exploit political instability. The U.S. has previously intervened to de-escalate tensions between the two nuclear-armed neighbors.
Conclusion
Gabbard's remarks on Pakistan's missile capabilities have reignited discussions about the strategic dynamics in South Asia and the implications for U.S. national security. While the U.S. intelligence community continues to monitor Pakistan's missile development, the prevailing view among experts is that Pakistan's capabilities remain focused on regional deterrence against India, rather than posing a direct threat to the U.S. homeland. As geopolitical tensions evolve, the need for nuanced understanding and dialogue remains critical in addressing these complex security challenges.
