Full Breakdown
Pakistan's Evolving Missile Capabilities: A Potential Threat to the U.S.
3/20/2026, 6:39:48 AM
Overview of the Threat Assessment
During a Senate Intelligence Committee hearing on March 18, 2026, U.S. Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard identified Pakistan as a significant potential threat to the United States due to its advancing missile capabilities. Gabbard stated that Pakistan, alongside Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran, is developing missile systems that could eventually reach U.S. territory. She warned that the number of missiles capable of threatening the U.S. could rise from over 3,000 today to more than 16,000 by 2035.
Details of Pakistan's Missile Program
Gabbard's testimony highlighted concerns regarding Pakistan's long-range ballistic missile development, suggesting it could include intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) capable of striking the U.S. homeland. However, experts have pushed back against this assertion, noting that Pakistan's longest-range missile, the Shaheen-III, has a range of approximately 2,750 kilometers, insufficient to reach the U.S., which is over 11,000 kilometers away. Analysts argue that Pakistan's missile program is primarily focused on India, aimed at maintaining a credible deterrent rather than projecting power globally.
Expert Opinions and Criticism
Critics of Gabbard's assessment, including former Pakistani officials and analysts, argue that her claims do not reflect the strategic realities of Pakistan's missile capabilities. Jalil Abbas Jilani, a former Pakistani ambassador, stated that Pakistan's nuclear doctrine is India-centric, aimed at deterring threats from its neighbor rather than targeting the U.S. Abdul Basit, another former diplomat, emphasized that such assertions are self-serving and ignore the historical context of Pakistan's military strategy.
Counterarguments from U.S. Analysts
Despite the pushback, some U.S. analysts maintain that Pakistan's missile advancements warrant scrutiny. Shuja Nawaz, a Washington-based scholar, noted that the U.S. has previously sanctioned Pakistani entities involved in missile development, indicating ongoing concerns about the potential for Pakistan to develop long-range capabilities.
Broader Implications for U.S.-Pakistan Relations
Gabbard's remarks come at a time of complex U.S.-Pakistan relations, which have seen fluctuations over the years. The Biden administration has attempted to recalibrate ties, particularly following a four-day conflict between India and Pakistan in May 2025, which was de-escalated with U.S. intervention. However, the inclusion of Pakistan in the same category as other nations with hostile intentions may complicate these diplomatic efforts.
Conclusion
The debate surrounding Pakistan's missile capabilities and their implications for U.S. national security continues to evolve. While Gabbard's testimony raises alarms about potential threats, the consensus among many experts is that Pakistan's military focus remains primarily regional, aimed at deterring India rather than projecting power towards the United States. As the geopolitical landscape shifts, ongoing assessments will be crucial in understanding the true nature of the threats posed by Pakistan and other nations.
Verbatim Quotes
- “Pakistan’s long-range ballistic missile development potentially could include ICBMs with the range capable of striking the homeland.” — Tulsi Gabbard, Director of National Intelligence
- “Pakistan’s nuclear doctrine is India-specific, aimed at maintaining credible deterrence in South Asia, not projecting power globally.” — Jalil Abbas Jilani, Former Pakistani Ambassador
- “Such self-serving and groundless assertions only betray Gabbard’s incorrigible biases,” he wrote on social media.” — Abdul Basit, Former Pakistani High Commissioner
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
There is a notable discrepancy between U.S. intelligence assessments and expert opinions regarding the actual capabilities of Pakistan's missile program. While Gabbard suggests a future threat to the U.S., many analysts argue that current capabilities do not support this claim, emphasizing that Pakistan's focus remains on India.
