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Goldman Sachs Raises Recession Odds Amid Job Decline

3/20/2026

30 6 Full Breakdown

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Goldman Sachs Warns

Goldman Sachs raises U.S. recession probability to 25% due to a weak February jobs report and higher oil prices.
The February payroll decline of 92,000 and a rising unemployment rate of 4.44% contribute to these concerns.
Oil prices have surged above $100 per barrel due to disruptions from the war in Iran.
Fidelity Investments says consumer spending remains resilient as long as energy costs stay below 5% of household income.

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Americans Fear Economic Collapse

A YouGov poll conducted Feb. 24–Mar. 1 finds more than 40% of Americans fear a total economic collapse within the next decade.
Democrats show higher anxiety, with 53% fearing collapse versus 28% of Republicans.
Fifty percent distrust U.S. President Donald Trump’s economic management.
The economy grew at a 0.7% annual rate in the fourth quarter.
The Labor Department reported 92,000 job losses in February, lifting the unemployment rate to 4.4%.

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Goldman Sachs Warns

Goldman Sachs raises U.S. recession probability to 25% due to a weak February jobs report and higher oil prices.
The February payroll decline of 92,000 and a rising unemployment rate of 4.44% contribute to these concerns.
Oil prices have surged above $100 per barrel due to disruptions from the war in Iran.
Fidelity Investments says consumer spending remains resilient as long as energy costs stay below 5% of household income.

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