Assessing the Impact of Operation Epic Fury on Iran's Missile Capabilities

Operation Epic Fury, initiated on February 28, 2026, by the United States and Israel, aims to significantly degrade Iran's military capabilities, particularly its ballistic missile and drone arsenal. Reports indicate that the operation has led to substantial operational successes, with the U.S. and Israeli forces targeting over 7,800 sites associated with Iranian military assets by March 18, 2026. This includes the destruction of more than 120 Iranian naval vessels and extensive strikes on missile launchers and production facilities.

The White House declared Iran’s missile capacity “functionally destroyed,” but Iran is still firing projectiles at Gulf countries every single dayFDD's Long War JournalThe Jerusalem Post

Despite claims from the White House that Iran's missile capacity is "functionally destroyed," assessments from various Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) sources present conflicting figures regarding the extent of damage inflicted on Iran's missile launchers. One IDF source reported that approximately 75% of Iran's 470 missile launchers had been neutralized, while another source cited a lower figure of around 60%. This inconsistency reflects ongoing challenges in accurately assessing the operational impact of military actions against Iran's missile capabilities.

The Jerusalem PostThe White House declared Iran’s missile capacity “functionally destroyed,” but Iran is still firing projectiles at Gulf countries every single dayFDD's Long War Journal

While the U.S. and Israel have made significant strides in reducing Iran's missile and drone capabilities, experts caution that Iran still retains enough operational capacity to launch attacks. David Des Roches, an associate professor at the National Defense University, emphasizes the difficulty in identifying all missile launchers due to Iran's vast geography and the decentralized nature of its military command. Although missile launches have reportedly decreased by 90% since the onset of the conflict, Iran continues to employ a strategy of "harassment fire," launching sporadic attacks that can still inflict damage on regional targets.

The White House declared Iran’s missile capacity “functionally destroyed,” but Iran is still firing projectiles at Gulf countries every single dayFDD's Long War JournalThe Jerusalem Post

Critics have raised concerns about the effectiveness of the U.S. and Israeli strategies in fully neutralizing Iran's military threat. Hamidreza Azizi, an expert on Iran, suggests that Tehran's approach may involve a "war of attrition," where Iran aims to exhaust the defensive capabilities of Gulf countries and Israel. Furthermore, the use of first-person view (FPV) drones by Iranian proxies poses new challenges for U.S. forces, enabling real-time reconnaissance and targeted attacks against American personnel and facilities.

The White House declared Iran’s missile capacity “functionally destroyed,” but Iran is still firing projectiles at Gulf countries every single day

Admiral Brad Cooper, commander of U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), has reiterated the military's objectives of eliminating Iran's missile and drone threats. He acknowledged the operational successes achieved thus far but also highlighted the persistent risks posed by Iranian proxies, which continue to launch attacks across the region. The Pentagon's assessments indicate that while significant progress has been made, the threat from Iran remains acute.

FDD's Long War JournalThe White House declared Iran’s missile capacity “functionally destroyed,” but Iran is still firing projectiles at Gulf countries every single day

Despite the operational gains made during Operation Epic Fury, Iran's military capabilities are not entirely diminished. The Islamic Republic continues to adapt its strategies, utilizing mobile launchers and decentralized command structures to maintain a credible threat. As the conflict evolves, the U.S. and its allies must remain vigilant against the potential for renewed attacks from Iran and its proxies, which could undermine regional stability and security.

FDD's Long War Journal