Full Breakdown
California Voters Favor Gavin Newsom Over Kamala Harris for 2028 Presidential Nomination
3/21/2026, 9:32:22 AM
Poll Results Highlight a Shift in Democratic Preferences
A recent poll conducted by the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies reveals that California voters are favoring Governor Gavin Newsom over former Vice President Kamala Harris as the preferred Democratic nominee for the 2028 presidential election. The survey, which included responses from 5,019 registered voters between March 9 and 14, indicates that only 9% of voters in Harris's home state would choose her as their first choice, while Newsom leads with 28% support. Other contenders, such as New York Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, received 14% and 11% respectively.
Background on Candidates
Gavin Newsom and Kamala Harris have both been prominent figures in California politics, with their careers intertwined since they both took office in 2004. Harris served as the state attorney general and later as a U.S. senator, while Newsom has been the governor since 2019. Despite their shared political history, recent polling suggests a significant shift in voter sentiment, particularly following Harris's defeat in the 2024 presidential election against Donald Trump.
Key Insights from the Poll
The poll results indicate that Newsom's more assertive stance against Trump has resonated with voters, particularly among older, Latino, and male demographics. In contrast, Harris's support appears to be hindered by her previous electoral defeat and potential biases against women and candidates of color. Mark DiCamillo, director of the Berkeley IGS Poll, noted that Newsom's ability to attract 42% of second-choice votes further solidifies his lead over Harris, who garnered only 20%.
Criticism and Opposition
Critics of Harris have pointed to her past electoral performance as a significant factor in her current standing. G. Cristina Mora, co-director of the poll, suggested that Harris's earlier presidential defeat, combined with persistent voter biases, may be influencing her low support. Additionally, a previous poll indicated that 45% of California voters expressed enthusiasm for Newsom's potential candidacy, compared to only 36% for Harris.
Conflicting Reports on Candidate Momentum
While the UC Berkeley poll shows a clear preference for Newsom, a separate survey from Echelon Insights presents a different narrative, indicating that Harris has recently overtaken Newsom among likely Democratic voters nationwide. In this poll, Harris received 21% support compared to Newsom's 19%, marking a notable shift from earlier polling in February. This discrepancy highlights the fluid nature of voter sentiment as the 2028 election approaches.
Official Statements and Responses
Both candidates have yet to formally announce their intentions for the 2028 presidential race. Newsom has previously stated that he does not intend to impede Harris's ambitions, while Harris has acknowledged the challenges both parties face in maintaining public trust.
What's Next for the Candidates?
As the political landscape continues to evolve, attention will likely focus on how both Newsom and Harris position themselves leading up to the 2026 midterm elections. These elections are expected to significantly influence party leadership debates and voter priorities as the Democratic primary approaches.
