Full Breakdown
2026 Fantasy Baseball Draft: Players to Avoid
3/21/2026, 7:21:15 AM
Key Players to Fade in 2026 Drafts
As the 2026 fantasy baseball season approaches, experts are advising caution regarding certain players who may not live up to their draft positions. Notably, Luis Arraez, a second baseman for the San Francisco Giants, is highlighted due to concerns about his defensive capabilities potentially limiting his playing time. His offensive skills may not compensate for the risk of being replaced by defensive substitutes.
Byron Buxton, an outfielder for the Minnesota Twins, is another player to avoid. Despite a strong 2025 season where he played 126 games and hit 35 home runs, his history of injuries raises red flags. Experts suggest that safer alternatives like Randy Arozarena, Riley Greene, and Taylor Ward should be prioritized over Buxton.
Concerns Over Aging Players
Aroldis Chapman, a relief pitcher, is also on the list of players to avoid. His historic 2025 season is deemed unlikely to be repeated, as only Mariano Rivera has achieved similar success at Chapman's age. His unsustainable .200 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) could lead to a significant increase in his earned run average (ERA).
Rafael Devers, a first baseman/designated hitter for the Giants, faces challenges in his hitting environment, which may hinder his performance. His rising strikeout rate and poor spring training performance further complicate his draft value.
Pitching Risks
Pitchers like Ryan Helsley of the Baltimore Orioles and Freddy Peralta of the New York Mets are also flagged. Helsley struggled after a trade and has shown declining fastball velocity, while Peralta's impressive strikeout numbers may be misleading due to favorable luck in 2025.
Additionally, Roki Sasaki, a pitcher for the Los Angeles Dodgers, is viewed skeptically after a disappointing first season in the MLB, raising concerns about his potential for improvement.
Injury-Prone Players
Trevor Story, a shortstop for the Boston Red Sox, is another player to approach with caution. His recent history of injuries and subpar performance metrics make him a risky pick, despite his potential upside if he can stay healthy.
Official Statements & Responses
Experts emphasize the importance of drafting players who can deliver consistent performance rather than relying on past successes or potential. The consensus is to avoid players with significant injury histories or those in declining performance trends.
Criticism & Opposition
Some analysts argue that the focus on avoiding certain players may overlook their potential value at lower draft positions. They suggest that if these players fall significantly in drafts, they could become worthwhile investments.
Verbatim Quotes
- “So, don't cross these guys off your lists before the draft begins -- just make sure you're sure about where you're comfortable taking them before locking them into your 2026 rosters.” — ESPN Fantasy Expert
- “All that said, banking on even 20, let alone 30, steals from a player who has finished in the 15th percentile or worse in Statcast's sprint speed in all four of his full MLB seasons is folly.” — Fantasy Analyst
In summary, as fantasy baseball enthusiasts prepare for the 2026 draft, careful consideration of player performance trends, injury histories, and environmental factors is crucial in making informed decisions.
