Full Breakdown
2026 Fantasy Baseball Draft Insights: Busts to Avoid
3/24/2026, 12:31:47 PM
Overview of the 2026 Fantasy Baseball Landscape
As the 2026 Fantasy baseball draft season approaches, players and managers are preparing to navigate a landscape shaped by previous seasons' performances. The Atlanta Braves, who saw their seven-year playoff streak end last year, experienced significant underperformance from key players like Ozzie Albies, Austin Riley, and Raisel Iglesias. This trend has raised concerns about potential busts in the upcoming drafts, as players like Adley Rutschman and Mookie Betts also failed to meet expectations in 2025.
Key Fantasy Baseball Busts to Avoid
Jacob Misiorowski: The Rookie's Regression
One player projected to be a bust in 2026 is Milwaukee Brewers starting pitcher Jacob Misiorowski. Despite a remarkable start to his career, including a historic All-Star appearance, Misiorowski struggled in the latter part of the season with a 6.03 ERA over his last eight starts. His average draft position (ADP) of 112 places him among the top 30 starters, but projections suggest he should barely crack the top 100.
Pete Alonso: Home Run Power in Decline
Another player to be cautious of is Baltimore Orioles first baseman Pete Alonso. After a strong season with the New York Mets, Alonso's metrics indicate potential regression. His career-best batting average on balls in play (BAbip) of .305 and a declining home run rate raise red flags. With an ADP of 34, he is being drafted significantly earlier than his projected value, which aligns more closely with that of Michael Busch.
Carlos Estevez: Closer Under Pressure
Kansas City Royals closer Carlos Estevez, who led the league with 42 saves last season, is also viewed as a potential bust. His underlying metrics suggest he may face significant regression, with a concerning xERA of 3.69 and a drop in fastball velocity this spring. Estevez's ADP of 129 may not reflect the risks associated with his performance.
Emilio Pagan: Regression Candidate
Cincinnati Reds reliever Emilio Pagan, who had a standout 2025 season, is another player to monitor closely. Despite his impressive stats, his flyball-heavy pitching style and a low ground-ball rate could lead to regression, especially in a hitter-friendly park. His ADP of 135 may not account for these risks.
Official Statements & Responses
The SportsLine model, which has successfully predicted player performances in the past, emphasizes the importance of avoiding players like Misiorowski and Alonso based on their recent trends and underlying metrics. The model's projections are updated regularly to reflect the latest MLB news, ensuring that Fantasy managers have the most accurate information available.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
While many analysts agree on the potential busts for 2026, there are differing opinions on players like Pete Alonso and Carlos Estevez. Some sources suggest that Alonso's power could rebound, while others remain skeptical about Estevez's ability to maintain his previous season's success. These discrepancies highlight the uncertainty surrounding player performances heading into the new season.
What's Next for Fantasy Managers
As the 2026 Fantasy baseball draft approaches, managers are encouraged to utilize updated rankings and cheat sheets from reliable sources like SportsLine. By focusing on avoiding projected busts and targeting potential breakouts, Fantasy owners can enhance their chances of success in the upcoming season.
