Full Breakdown
Power Struggle in Iran Following Leadership Losses
3/21/2026, 10:49:22 AM
Recent Leadership Changes Amid Conflict
The ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran has resulted in the deaths of several key Iranian leaders, significantly altering the country's power dynamics. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in an Israeli airstrike on February 28, 2026, followed by the assassination of Ali Larijani, the head of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, on March 18, 2026. Larijani's death, alongside other high-ranking officials, has raised questions about who is currently in charge of Iran.
The Rise of Mojtaba Khamenei
In the wake of Khamenei's death, his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, was appointed as the new supreme leader. However, his visibility and authority have been questioned, as he has not appeared in public since the airstrike. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu expressed uncertainty about the current leadership, stating, “I’m not sure who’s running Iran right now.” Analysts suggest that the Revolutionary Guard, a powerful paramilitary force, may now hold the true reins of power, overshadowing the new supreme leader.
The Role of the Revolutionary Guard
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has emerged as a dominant force in Iran's governance, particularly following the elimination of senior leaders. Ali Vaez, director at the International Crisis Group, noted that the Revolutionary Guard is now effectively running the country, as the civilian leadership has become increasingly subservient. The IRGC's influence is further underscored by its historical role in protecting the Islamic Republic and its involvement in regional conflicts.
Implications of Leadership Losses
The deaths of leaders like Larijani, who was seen as a pragmatic figure capable of navigating both military and political landscapes, could lead to a more hardline approach in Iran's governance. Burcu Ozcelik, a senior research fellow, emphasized that the loss of key decision-makers will have transformative consequences, although the full impact may take time to manifest. The expectation that the regime would collapse due to the removal of a few leaders is viewed as an illusion, as the Islamic Republic has multiple layers of leadership that can adapt.
Criticism of Current Strategies
Critics argue that the U.S. and Israel have miscalculated the resilience of the Iranian regime. The belief that decapitating the leadership would lead to paralysis has proven flawed. The IRGC's ability to maintain control and adapt to leadership changes suggests that the regime may become even more entrenched in its hardline policies.
Future Leadership Prospects
As Iran navigates this leadership vacuum, potential successors to Larijani include his brother Sadiq Larijani and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, both of whom are aligned with the IRGC. The likelihood of a moderate replacement is slim, as the IRGC appears poised to ensure that any new leaders are hardliners who will support its agenda.
Verbatim Quotes
- “I’m not sure who’s running Iran right now,” — Benjamin Netanyahu, Prime Minister of Israel
- “The Revolutionary Guard is the state now,” — Ali Vaez, Iran Project Director, International Crisis Group
- “The expectation that this regime will … implode by removing a few dozen senior leaders, I think is nothing but an illusion.” — Ali Vaez
The ongoing conflict and the resulting leadership changes in Iran highlight a complex power struggle that may redefine the country's future trajectory.
