Full Breakdown
2026 Fantasy Baseball Draft: Players to Avoid
3/21/2026, 3:20:29 PM
Key Players to Fade in 2026 Drafts
As the 2026 fantasy baseball season approaches, analysts are advising caution regarding several players who may not live up to their draft positions. This article synthesizes insights on 15 players to avoid based on their performance trends, injury risks, and overall value in drafts.
Luis Arraez: Defensive Concerns
Luis Arraez, currently with the San Francisco Giants, is facing scrutiny due to his defensive capabilities, which may limit his playing time. His position at second base, combined with Rafael Devers at first, raises concerns about the Giants' defensive strength. Analysts suggest that Arraez's contact skills may not compensate for his potential reduced at-bats, making him a risky pick.
Byron Buxton: Injury History
Byron Buxton's 2025 season saw him play 126 games and hit 35 home runs, but his history of injuries remains a significant concern. Despite a successful season, he still faced multiple trips to the injured list, leading experts to recommend safer alternatives like Randy Arozarena and Riley Greene over Buxton in drafts.
Aroldis Chapman: Unsustainable Performance
Aroldis Chapman had a historic 2025 season, but analysts caution that such performance is unlikely to be repeated. His career-best .200 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is unsustainable, and his age raises questions about his ability to maintain upper-tier closer status. Drafting Chapman at his current price may not yield the expected returns.
Rafael Devers: Home Environment Issues
Rafael Devers, while a consistent power hitter, faces challenges due to his home environment, which is not conducive to his hitting style. His rising strikeout rate and poor spring training performance further complicate his draft value, making him a player to approach with caution.
Ryan Helsley: Declining Velocity
Ryan Helsley's recent performance has raised alarms, particularly after a late-season trade that saw his walk rate increase significantly. His fastball velocity has also declined this spring, which could jeopardize his role as a closer for the Baltimore Orioles.
Trevor Story: Health Concerns
Trevor Story's recent history of injuries makes him a risky investment. Although he avoided the injured list in 2025, his overall performance metrics indicate a decline. Analysts suggest that relying on Story for consistent production may not be wise.
Spencer Strider: Velocity Decline
Spencer Strider's fastball velocity has dropped significantly this spring, raising concerns about his effectiveness as a top-tier starting pitcher. His previous high strikeout rates may not be sustainable if this trend continues, making him a player to avoid in early drafts.
Official Statements & Responses
Experts emphasize the importance of evaluating players based on their recent performances and injury histories. The consensus is that while some players may have breakout potential, the risks associated with their current trajectories outweigh the potential rewards.
Criticism & Opposition
Critics argue that some players labeled as "busts" may still offer value if drafted at lower positions. They caution against completely dismissing players like Buxton and Devers, suggesting that their potential upside could justify a later-round selection.
Verbatim Quotes
- “So, don't cross these guys off your lists before the draft begins -- just make sure you're sure about where you're comfortable taking them before locking them into your 2026 rosters.” — Fantasy Analyst
- “All that said, banking on even 20, let alone 30, steals from a player who has finished in the 15th percentile or worse in Statcast's sprint speed in all four of his full MLB seasons is folly.” — Fantasy Expert
- “200 BABIP is unsustainable from year-to-year, and his ERA might well double (or worse), making his upper-tier closer price seem excessive.” — Analyst Commentary
In conclusion, while the 2026 fantasy baseball draft presents opportunities for success, careful consideration of player performance and health is essential. Avoiding certain players based on their current trajectories may enhance overall team performance in the upcoming season.
