Hamas Navigates Complex Alliances Amid Regional Conflict

The ongoing war in the Middle East has placed Hamas, the Palestinian militant group, in a precarious position as it attempts to balance its relationships with two key allies, Iran and Qatar, who are on opposing sides of the conflict. The United States and Israel have launched extensive air assaults against Iran, which has retaliated by targeting Israel and Gulf nations, including Qatar, with missiles and drones. This situation complicates Hamas's stance, as it seeks to express solidarity with Iran while also maintaining its ties with Qatar, which has historically supported Gaza through financial aid.

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Hamas has long relied on Iran for military support, including funding, equipment, and training, positioning itself within Iran's "axis of resistance." Conversely, Qatar has provided substantial financial assistance to Gaza, facilitating humanitarian projects and public sector salaries, often with Israeli approval. However, Israeli officials have recently expressed regret over allowing Qatari funds into Gaza, suggesting that these resources have been diverted to bolster Hamas's military capabilities.

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In the early days of the war, Hamas condemned the Israeli-American attacks on Iran, framing them as a threat to the entire region. Following the death of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in an Israeli strike, Hamas issued a statement mourning his loss and reaffirming its commitment to Iran. However, Hamas remained silent on Iran's missile attacks targeting Qatar, indicating a potential rift within the organization regarding its alliances.

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Experts note that Hamas is experiencing internal divisions, with factions aligned either closely with Iran or more favorably disposed toward Arab states. Esmat Mansour, a Palestinian political analyst, highlighted this dichotomy, suggesting that the stronger pro-Iran faction has influenced Hamas's public statements during the conflict. The group's recent call for Iran to refrain from targeting regional countries, while not naming Qatar, underscores these internal tensions.

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Amid the conflict, President Trump's Board of Peace has presented Hamas with a formal proposal to relinquish its weapons in exchange for a potential ceasefire and reconstruction efforts in Gaza. This proposal, which includes the gradual handover of arms and the establishment of a new governing authority, has been met with mixed responses from Hamas. Some officials have indicated a willingness to discuss the proposal, while others have expressed skepticism, suggesting that Hamas may delay its response until the outcome of the war with Iran becomes clearer.

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The situation remains fluid, with conflicting reports regarding the extent of Hamas's military capabilities and the impact of the ongoing war on its governance in Gaza. While Israeli sources claim significant casualties among Hamas militants, Palestinian health officials report extensive civilian casualties in Gaza, complicating the narrative surrounding the conflict.

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• “Hamas is walking on the knife’s edge,” — Iyad al-Qarra, Palestinian analyst

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• “There are two currents in Hamas: one close to Iran, which is stronger, and another close to Arab states, which is weaker,” — Esmat Mansour, Palestinian political analyst

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• “Hamas sees time as being on its side right now,” — Robert Danin, former U.S. State Department official

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As the conflict continues, Hamas's ability to navigate its relationships with Iran and Qatar will be crucial in determining its future role in the region and the ongoing humanitarian crisis in Gaza.

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