Italy's Constitutional Referendum: A Test for Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni

Italy is poised for a pivotal constitutional referendum on judicial reform, spearheaded by Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni's right-wing government. The proposed changes aim to separate the career paths of judges and prosecutors, establish distinct governing bodies for each, and introduce a new disciplinary court. This referendum, set for March 19-20, 2026, has evolved into a political battleground, with the "Yes" camp supporting the reforms and the "No" camp framing them as a threat to democracy.

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Meloni, who has been in power for three-and-a-half years, is facing her first significant electoral challenge. The referendum's outcome is seen as a reflection of her political strength and could either solidify her government or embolden opposition parties ahead of the 2027 general elections. Analysts suggest that the referendum has become less about judicial reform and more about Meloni's governance, with many voters likely to cast their ballots based on political preferences rather than the substance of the reforms.

Supporters of the reform, including members of Meloni's Brothers of Italy party, argue that it will enhance accountability within the judiciary and reduce conflicts of interest. Andrea Del Corno, a lawyer advocating for the "Yes" vote, stated, “The reform allows the judiciary to move toward a more transparent system of self-regulation.” Conversely, critics, including the magistrates' union ANM, contend that the changes would undermine judicial independence and increase political interference. Davide Steccanella, a lawyer campaigning against the reform, warned of its "punitive intent toward judges and prosecutors."

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The referendum is backed by Meloni's coalition, which includes the League and Forza Italia, the latter being the party of the late Silvio Berlusconi, who previously attempted similar reforms. Opposition parties, including the Democratic Party and the 5-Star Movement, have united against the proposed changes, framing them as an authoritarian move. Political scientist Roberto D'Alimonte emphasized the stakes for Meloni, noting, "If she loses, there will be an impact and she understands that."

Meloni has publicly defended the reforms, asserting that they are necessary to modernize Italy's judicial system, which is often criticized for inefficiency. She stated, “The reform aims to make the justice system more modern, fair, accountable and independent.” However, she has also faced backlash for her rhetoric, which some perceive as fearmongering regarding crime and immigration.

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Polls leading up to the referendum indicate a tight race, with the "No" campaign gaining momentum. Analysts have noted that low voter turnout could favor the opposition, while high turnout may benefit Meloni. The lack of a turnout quorum means that the camp with the most votes will win, regardless of participation levels.

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The referendum results will be closely monitored, as they could significantly impact Meloni's political future and the broader landscape of Italian politics. A defeat could weaken her government and embolden opposition parties, while a victory would bolster her position ahead of the upcoming general elections.

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• “If you vote 'no' today just to send Meloni home, you'll find yourself keeping both Meloni and a justice system that doesn't work,” — Giorgia Meloni, Prime Minister of Italy

• “The reform allows the judiciary to move toward a more transparent system of self-regulation than in the past, because the lottery eliminates power blocks and external influence,” — Andrea Del Corno, Lawyer

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• “We don't want that not to be possible in the future.” — Andrea Malpassi, CGIL Trade Union Representative

• “A 'no' win could give fresh momentum to efforts to build a centre-left bloc, also causing trouble within Meloni's ranks,” — Emanuele Massetti, Political Science Professor

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This referendum represents a critical juncture for Italy, as the outcome will not only shape the future of its judicial system but also the political landscape under Meloni's leadership.

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