Power Dynamics in Iran: The Role of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps

Recent assessments from Israeli and U.S. intelligence indicate that Mojtaba Khamenei, the newly appointed Supreme Leader of Iran, is alive but lacks effective control over the country's leadership. Sources suggest that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is likely exercising significant influence over Khamenei, with one source stating, “Most likely, the Revolutionary Guards control him and he does not control them.” Khamenei, who succeeded his father Ali Khamenei after the latter's death in an Israeli airstrike, is reportedly injured and has not made a public appearance since assuming leadership.

The Jerusalem PostAfter Larijani’s Death and Mojtaba’s Absence, Who Is Making Iran’s War Decisions?The Jerusalem PostYnetNews

The power dynamics in Iran have shifted notably since the death of Ali Khamenei. Analysts suggest that the IRGC has emerged as the dominant force in governance, overshadowing the traditional authority of the Supreme Leader. A three-member wartime council, led by former IRGC commander Mohsen Rezaei, is currently directing Iran's military and political strategies. This council also includes IRGC commander Ahmad Vahidi and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, all of whom are aligned with hardline policies.

After Larijani’s Death and Mojtaba’s Absence, Who Is Making Iran’s War Decisions?The Jerusalem PostYnetNews

The IRGC's influence has expanded significantly, particularly during the ongoing conflict with Israel and the United States. The council is reportedly focused on maintaining internal stability and suppressing dissent through strict security measures, including the activation of the Basij paramilitary forces. Reports indicate that the IRGC has been granted authority to use lethal force against perceived threats, reflecting a hardline approach to governance.

After Larijani’s Death and Mojtaba’s Absence, Who Is Making Iran’s War Decisions?

In a statement attributed to Mojtaba Khamenei, he emphasized the resilience of the Iranian people in the face of leadership decapitation, asserting that “the enemy believed that by targeting the leader and influential figures, it could instill fear.” This sentiment underscores the regime's commitment to projecting strength despite the turmoil within its leadership.

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Critics argue that the current situation reflects a significant departure from the centralized power traditionally held by the Supreme Leader. Some analysts caution that while Khamenei retains formal authority, the IRGC's dominance may lead to a military-security state, diminishing the role of religious leadership. Observers have noted that the IRGC's rise could mark the end of the relative balance between reformist and conservative factions within Iran.

After Larijani’s Death and Mojtaba’s Absence, Who Is Making Iran’s War Decisions?

There is ongoing uncertainty regarding the extent of Khamenei's injuries and his actual capacity to govern. While some reports suggest he is incapacitated, others indicate he remains functional, albeit with limited authority. The lack of clarity surrounding his condition raises questions about the decision-making processes within the Iranian leadership.

After Larijani’s Death and Mojtaba’s Absence, Who Is Making Iran’s War Decisions?

As the conflict continues, the IRGC's role in Iran's governance is likely to evolve further. Analysts predict that the regime may adopt more hardline policies, potentially leading to increased isolation and internal strife. The ongoing war and the absence of a clear leadership structure could have lasting implications for Iran's political landscape and its relations with external powers.

After Larijani’s Death and Mojtaba’s Absence, Who Is Making Iran’s War Decisions?

• “The more likely scenario is that the Revolutionary Guards are controlling him, not the other way around,” — Source, Intelligence Analyst

The Jerusalem Post

• “The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is the state now,” — Ali Vaez, Director, International Crisis Group

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• “The expectation that the regime would collapse after the killing of dozens of senior leaders is nothing more than an illusion,” — Ali Vaez, Director, International Crisis Group

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• “The enemy believed that by targeting the leader and influential figures, it could instill fear and force the people to withdraw,” — Mojtaba Khamenei, Supreme Leader of Iran

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