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India's GDP Growth Overstated for Two Decades, Study Finds

3/22/2026

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Summary

Story summary

A working paper from Peterson Institute for International Economics finds India's GDP figures misrepresent growth for nearly two decades.
Growth was overstated after 2011 by up to two percentage points and understated during the 2000s.
The misestimation allegedly led to poor investment decisions and delayed reforms.
The authors propose GDP-methodology adjustments yielding 2011–2023 growth of 4.0 to 4.4 percent, lower than official figures.

History

Historical Context

In 2015, India's Central Statistics Office revised GDP calculation methods, changing the base year to 2011/12 and adopting market prices. This adjustment revealed that growth rates were overstated by 2% post-2011, raising concerns about economic transparency. These changes echo ongoing discussions about the reliability of India's economic data, which is crucial for effective policy-making and investment decisions.

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Story summary

A working paper from Peterson Institute for International Economics finds India's GDP figures misrepresent growth for nearly two decades.
Growth was overstated after 2011 by up to two percentage points and understated during the 2000s.
The misestimation allegedly led to poor investment decisions and delayed reforms.
The authors propose GDP-methodology adjustments yielding 2011–2023 growth of 4.0 to 4.4 percent, lower than official figures.

1 / 2